A user opinion and metadata mining scheme for predicting box office performance of movies in the social network environment

With the rapid proliferation of social network services (SNS), it has become common for people to express their thoughts or opinions on various subjects, such as political events, movies, or commercial products, using short comments. Though the comments reflect personal opinion or preferences, collectively, these represent public opinion or trends. Mining public opinion or trends from a collection of user comments made on SNS could be very useful for many applications. One interesting application is to predict the box office performance of a new movie from user comments made on the movie's trailer. Such a prediction is, nevertheless, a very complicated task because many factors can have an influence on it. In this paper, we propose a scheme for mining public opinion from a collection of user comments, easily available on social networks, on the trailer of a new movie. Next, we predict whether the movie will be a box office hit, based on public opinion and other properties such as the leading actors, director, and their past works. Through various experiments, we show that our scheme can produce satisfactory results.