Comparison of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores for predicting short term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis

Se Yune Kim, Hyung Joon Yim, Juneyoung Lee, Beomjae Lee, Dong Il Kim, Sung Woo Jung, Woo Sik Han, Jong Sup Lee, Ja Seol Koo, Yeon Seok Seo, Jong Eun Yeon, Hong Sik Lee, Sang Woo Lee, Soon-Ho Um, Kwan Soo Byun, Jai Hyun Choi, Ho Sang Ryu

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

10 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

BACKGROUND/AIMS: MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium) was suggested to provide better survival prediction than MELD alone for patients with end stage liver disease. However, there is no data verifying the usefulness of MELD-Na for predicting short term mortality of cirrhotic patients in Korea. This study was aimed to determine whether MELD-Na would be more accurate in predicting short term mortality than other scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) or MELD. METHODS: Data from 355 patients admitted due to liver cirrhosis were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative survival rates were obtained. Prediction of mortality rate for three months and one year were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred patients (28%) died during the study period. All of the three systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate according to the scores on admission (p0.001). The AUC of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting three-months mortality were 0.828, 0.845, and 0.862 (p0.05), and the AUC of each score system for death within one year were 0.792, 0.800, and 0.831, respectively (p0.05). The AUC of MELD-Na in predicting short term death were the highest, although it was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that only MELD-Na was significantly related to three-month mortality (p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-Na is more appropriate in predicting short term mortality, but larger scale studies are needed to confirm the superiority of MELD-Na to MELD and CTP in patients with liver cirrhosis.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)92-100
Number of pages9
JournalThe Korean journal of gastroenterology = Taehan Sohwagi Hakhoe chi
Volume50
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2007 Aug 1

Fingerprint

Liver Cirrhosis
Area Under Curve
Mortality
End Stage Liver Disease
Survival Rate
Korea
ROC Curve
Multivariate Analysis
Sodium
Survival
Serum

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

Cite this

@article{97ba486020084161959b1cec391270a2,
title = "Comparison of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores for predicting short term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis",
abstract = "BACKGROUND/AIMS: MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium) was suggested to provide better survival prediction than MELD alone for patients with end stage liver disease. However, there is no data verifying the usefulness of MELD-Na for predicting short term mortality of cirrhotic patients in Korea. This study was aimed to determine whether MELD-Na would be more accurate in predicting short term mortality than other scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) or MELD. METHODS: Data from 355 patients admitted due to liver cirrhosis were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative survival rates were obtained. Prediction of mortality rate for three months and one year were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred patients (28{\%}) died during the study period. All of the three systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate according to the scores on admission (p0.001). The AUC of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting three-months mortality were 0.828, 0.845, and 0.862 (p0.05), and the AUC of each score system for death within one year were 0.792, 0.800, and 0.831, respectively (p0.05). The AUC of MELD-Na in predicting short term death were the highest, although it was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that only MELD-Na was significantly related to three-month mortality (p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-Na is more appropriate in predicting short term mortality, but larger scale studies are needed to confirm the superiority of MELD-Na to MELD and CTP in patients with liver cirrhosis.",
author = "Kim, {Se Yune} and Yim, {Hyung Joon} and Juneyoung Lee and Beomjae Lee and Kim, {Dong Il} and Jung, {Sung Woo} and Han, {Woo Sik} and Lee, {Jong Sup} and Koo, {Ja Seol} and Seo, {Yeon Seok} and Yeon, {Jong Eun} and Lee, {Hong Sik} and Lee, {Sang Woo} and Soon-Ho Um and Byun, {Kwan Soo} and Choi, {Jai Hyun} and Ryu, {Ho Sang}",
year = "2007",
month = "8",
day = "1",
language = "English",
volume = "50",
pages = "92--100",
journal = "The Korean journal of gastroenterology = Taehan Sohwagi Hakhoe chi",
issn = "1598-9992",
publisher = "Korean Society of Gastroenterology",
number = "2",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Comparison of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na scores for predicting short term mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis

AU - Kim, Se Yune

AU - Yim, Hyung Joon

AU - Lee, Juneyoung

AU - Lee, Beomjae

AU - Kim, Dong Il

AU - Jung, Sung Woo

AU - Han, Woo Sik

AU - Lee, Jong Sup

AU - Koo, Ja Seol

AU - Seo, Yeon Seok

AU - Yeon, Jong Eun

AU - Lee, Hong Sik

AU - Lee, Sang Woo

AU - Um, Soon-Ho

AU - Byun, Kwan Soo

AU - Choi, Jai Hyun

AU - Ryu, Ho Sang

PY - 2007/8/1

Y1 - 2007/8/1

N2 - BACKGROUND/AIMS: MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium) was suggested to provide better survival prediction than MELD alone for patients with end stage liver disease. However, there is no data verifying the usefulness of MELD-Na for predicting short term mortality of cirrhotic patients in Korea. This study was aimed to determine whether MELD-Na would be more accurate in predicting short term mortality than other scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) or MELD. METHODS: Data from 355 patients admitted due to liver cirrhosis were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative survival rates were obtained. Prediction of mortality rate for three months and one year were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred patients (28%) died during the study period. All of the three systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate according to the scores on admission (p0.001). The AUC of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting three-months mortality were 0.828, 0.845, and 0.862 (p0.05), and the AUC of each score system for death within one year were 0.792, 0.800, and 0.831, respectively (p0.05). The AUC of MELD-Na in predicting short term death were the highest, although it was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that only MELD-Na was significantly related to three-month mortality (p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-Na is more appropriate in predicting short term mortality, but larger scale studies are needed to confirm the superiority of MELD-Na to MELD and CTP in patients with liver cirrhosis.

AB - BACKGROUND/AIMS: MELD-Na (model for end-stage liver disease with incorporation of serum sodium) was suggested to provide better survival prediction than MELD alone for patients with end stage liver disease. However, there is no data verifying the usefulness of MELD-Na for predicting short term mortality of cirrhotic patients in Korea. This study was aimed to determine whether MELD-Na would be more accurate in predicting short term mortality than other scoring systems such as Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) or MELD. METHODS: Data from 355 patients admitted due to liver cirrhosis were retrospectively reviewed. The cumulative survival rates were obtained. Prediction of mortality rate for three months and one year were analyzed using the area under the receiver's operating characteristics curve (AUC). RESULTS: One hundred patients (28%) died during the study period. All of the three systems showed significant differences in the cumulative survival rate according to the scores on admission (p0.001). The AUC of CTP, MELD, and MELD-Na in predicting three-months mortality were 0.828, 0.845, and 0.862 (p0.05), and the AUC of each score system for death within one year were 0.792, 0.800, and 0.831, respectively (p0.05). The AUC of MELD-Na in predicting short term death were the highest, although it was not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed that only MELD-Na was significantly related to three-month mortality (p=0.012). CONCLUSIONS: MELD-Na is more appropriate in predicting short term mortality, but larger scale studies are needed to confirm the superiority of MELD-Na to MELD and CTP in patients with liver cirrhosis.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=55449131666&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=55449131666&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

C2 - 17928752

AN - SCOPUS:55449131666

VL - 50

SP - 92

EP - 100

JO - The Korean journal of gastroenterology = Taehan Sohwagi Hakhoe chi

JF - The Korean journal of gastroenterology = Taehan Sohwagi Hakhoe chi

SN - 1598-9992

IS - 2

ER -