TY - JOUR
T1 - Difference in temporal variation of temperature-related mortality risk in seven major South Korean cities spanning 1998–2013
AU - Kim, Honghyok
AU - Kim, Hyomi
AU - Byun, Garam
AU - Choi, Yongsoo
AU - Song, Hyeonjin
AU - Lee, Jong Tae
N1 - Funding Information:
This work was financially supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant (2014R1A2A1A11052556) funded by the Korea government (MSIP).
Funding Information:
This work was financially supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea Grant ( 2014R1A2A1A11052556 ) funded by the Korea government ( MSIP ).
Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 Elsevier B.V.
Copyright:
Copyright 2019 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.
PY - 2019/3/15
Y1 - 2019/3/15
N2 - Temporal variation of temperature-related mortality risk is an important issue in climate change era. However, difference in this temporal variation across cities in South Korea remains unclear. The aim of this study was to explore whether temporal variation might differ spatially across seven metropolitan cities of Korea during the period of 1998–2013. We estimated cumulative associations between temperature (up to previous 14 days of exposure) and all-cause mortality, and compared cumulative associations between the first eight years (1998–2005) and the last eight years (2006–2013). Multivariate meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate what factors might be associated with spatial and temporal variation in cumulative associations. We found that Busan, Daegu, and Gwangju experienced decrease in heat effect from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013, while Incheon experienced increase in heat effect. By comparing mortality risk at 99th percentile of temperature to mortality risk at minimum mortality temperature, percentage increase of mortality risk changed from 4.8% (95% CI: −1.3, 11.3) to 0.4% (95% CI: −6.0, 7.4) in Busan, from 17.2% (95% CI: 10.2, 24.7) to 4.0% (95% CI: −1.4, 9.8) in Daegu, from 20.3% (95% CI: 11.5, 29.7) to 2.2% (95% CI: −3.5, 8.3) in Gwangju, and from 3.5% (95% CI: 0.2, 6.8) to 7.9% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.9) in Incheon, respectively. Change in average temperature from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013 was negatively associated with change in heat effect even though average temperature in most of the cities fluctuated over time. We also found that all seven cities had decrease in effect of moderate cold temperature from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013. Such decrease was associated with improvement in medical resources. Results of this study suggest that plans for adaptation to temperature-related risks should differ across populations because adaptation to temperature varies across populations and within the same population over different time.
AB - Temporal variation of temperature-related mortality risk is an important issue in climate change era. However, difference in this temporal variation across cities in South Korea remains unclear. The aim of this study was to explore whether temporal variation might differ spatially across seven metropolitan cities of Korea during the period of 1998–2013. We estimated cumulative associations between temperature (up to previous 14 days of exposure) and all-cause mortality, and compared cumulative associations between the first eight years (1998–2005) and the last eight years (2006–2013). Multivariate meta-regression analysis was performed to investigate what factors might be associated with spatial and temporal variation in cumulative associations. We found that Busan, Daegu, and Gwangju experienced decrease in heat effect from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013, while Incheon experienced increase in heat effect. By comparing mortality risk at 99th percentile of temperature to mortality risk at minimum mortality temperature, percentage increase of mortality risk changed from 4.8% (95% CI: −1.3, 11.3) to 0.4% (95% CI: −6.0, 7.4) in Busan, from 17.2% (95% CI: 10.2, 24.7) to 4.0% (95% CI: −1.4, 9.8) in Daegu, from 20.3% (95% CI: 11.5, 29.7) to 2.2% (95% CI: −3.5, 8.3) in Gwangju, and from 3.5% (95% CI: 0.2, 6.8) to 7.9% (95% CI: 5.0, 10.9) in Incheon, respectively. Change in average temperature from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013 was negatively associated with change in heat effect even though average temperature in most of the cities fluctuated over time. We also found that all seven cities had decrease in effect of moderate cold temperature from 1998–2005 to 2006–2013. Such decrease was associated with improvement in medical resources. Results of this study suggest that plans for adaptation to temperature-related risks should differ across populations because adaptation to temperature varies across populations and within the same population over different time.
KW - Adaptation
KW - Mortality
KW - Spatial variation
KW - Temperature
KW - Temporal variation
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85057599592&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=85057599592&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.210
DO - 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.11.210
M3 - Article
C2 - 30625685
AN - SCOPUS:85057599592
SN - 0048-9697
VL - 656
SP - 986
EP - 996
JO - Science of the Total Environment
JF - Science of the Total Environment
ER -
