Efficiency and reliability of bayesian calibration of energy supply system models

Kathrin Menberg, Yeonsook Heo, Ruchi Choudhary

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contribution

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In this study, we examine the efficiency and reliability of a Bayesian calibration setup using temperature point measurements. Hamiltonian Monte Carlo sampling is found to be significantly more efficient with regard to convergence of the posterior distributions, which is assessed using different visual and quantitative measures. The examination of posterior realizations from different data sets and different prior distributions reveals that inference about model parameters is in general quite reliable, while learning about the magnitude of different error terms, such as model discrepancy and random errors, proves to be more difficult. Finally, predictive simulation results based on these inferred posterior distributions are generally in good agreement with measured data.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication15th International Conference of the International Building Performance Simulation Association, Building Simulation 2017
EditorsCharles S. Barnaby, Michael Wetter
PublisherInternational Building Performance Simulation Association
Pages572-581
Number of pages10
ISBN (Electronic)9781510870673
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes
Event15th International Conference of the International Building Performance Simulation Association, Building Simulation 2017 - San Francisco, United States
Duration: 2017 Aug 72017 Aug 9

Publication series

NameBuilding Simulation Conference Proceedings
Volume2
ISSN (Print)2522-2708

Conference

Conference15th International Conference of the International Building Performance Simulation Association, Building Simulation 2017
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CitySan Francisco
Period17/8/717/8/9

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Building and Construction
  • Architecture
  • Modelling and Simulation
  • Computer Science Applications

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Efficiency and reliability of bayesian calibration of energy supply system models'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this