Forecasting emissions of atmospheric pollutants in North Korea

Seung Kuk Cho, Seung-Jun Kwak

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Abstract

Based on North Korea’s energy consumption of coal, oil, and electric power during a 20-year span between 1975 and 1994, this study estimated the demand of each energy source and forecasts the demand of each energy source for the next 10 years. The forecasted demand for energy, in turn, is used to forecast emissions of atmospheric pollutants, such as total suspended particles (TSP), SOx, CO2, hydrocarbons (HC), and NOx, for the next 10 years using emission factors. In doing so, this study adopts the ordinary least squares (OLS) approach and the vector autoregressive (VAR) approach, which, as only limited data are available concerning the energy, environmental, and economic situation of North Korea, is expected to improve the forecasting of emissions of atmospheric pollutants in North Korea.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)29-43
Number of pages15
JournalEnvironmental Economics and Policy Studies
Volume4
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Jan 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law
  • Economics and Econometrics

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