Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Christopher J L Murray, Katrina F. Ortblad, Caterina Guinovart, Stephen S. Lim, Timothy M. Wolock, D. Allen Roberts, Emily A. Dansereau, Nicholas Graetz, Ryan M. Barber, Jonathan C. Brown, Haidong Wang, Herbert C. Duber, Mohsen Naghavi, Daniel Dicker, Lalit Dandona, Joshua A. Salomon, Kyle R. Heuton, Kyle Foreman, David E. Phillips, Thomas D. FlemingAbraham D. Flaxman, Bryan K. Phillips, Elizabeth K. Johnson, Megan S. Coggeshall, Foad Abd-Allah, Semaw Ferede Abera, Jerry P. Abraham, Ibrahim Abubakar, Laith J. Abu-Raddad, Niveen Me Abu-Rmeileh, Tom Achoki, Austine Olufemi Adeyemo, Arsène Kouablan Adou, José C. Adsuar, Emilie Elisabet Agardh, Dickens Akena, Mazin J. Al Kahbouri, Deena Alasfoor, Mohammed I. Albittar, Gabriel Alcalá-Cerra, Miguel Angel Alegretti, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho, Samia Alhabib, Raghib Ali, Francois Alla, Peter J. Allen, Ubai Alsharif, Elena Alvarez, Nelson Alvis-Guzman, Adansi A. Amankwaa, Azmeraw T. Amare, Hassan Amini, Walid Ammar, Benjamin O. Anderson, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Palwasha Anwari, Johan Ärnlöv, Valentina S. Arsic Arsenijevic, Ali Artaman, Rana J. Asghar, Reza Assadi, Lydia S. Atkins, Alaa Badawi, Kalpana Balakrishnan, Amitava Banerjee, Sanjay Basu, Justin Beardsley, Tolesa Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Eduardo Bernabe, Tariku Jibat Beyene, Neeraj Bhala, Ashish Bhalla, Zulfiqar A. Bhutta, Aref Bin Abdulhak, Agnes Binagwaho, Jed D. Blore, Berrak Bora Basara, Dipan Bose, Michael Brainin, Nicholas Breitborde, Carlos A. Castañeda-Orjuela, Ferrán Catalá-López, Vineet K. Chadha, Jung Chen Chang, Peggy Pei Chia Chiang, Ting Wu Chuang, Mercedes Colomar, Leslie Trumbull Cooper, Cyrus Cooper, Karen J. Courville, Benjamin C. Cowie, Michael H. Criqui, Rakhi Dandona, Anand Dayama, Diego De Leo, Louisa Degenhardt, Borja Del Pozo-Cruz, Kebede Deribe, Don C. Des Jarlais, Muluken Dessalegn, Samath D. Dharmaratne, Uur Dilmen, Eric L. Ding, Tim R. Driscoll, Adnan M. Durrani, Richard G. Ellenbogen, Sergey Petrovich Ermakov, Alireza Esteghamati, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Farshad Farzadfar, Seyed Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Daniel Obadare Fijabi, Mohammad H. Forouzanfar, Urbano Fra Paleo, Lynne Gaffikin, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Fortuné Gbètoho Gankpé, Johanna M. Geleijnse, Bradford D. Gessner, Katherine B. Gibney, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed Ginawi, Elizabeth L. Glaser, Philimon Gona, Atsushi Goto, Hebe N. Gouda, Harish Chander Gugnani, Rajeev Gupta, Rahul Gupta, Nima Hafezi-Nejad, Randah Ribhi Hamadeh, Mouhanad Hammami, Graeme J. Hankey, Hilda L. Harb, Josep Maria Haro, Rasmus Havmoeller, Simon I. Hay, Mohammad T. Hedayati, Ileana B. Heredia Pi, Hans W. Hoek, John C. Hornberger, H. Dean Hosgood, Peter J. Hotez, Damian G. Hoy, John J. Huang, Kim M. Iburg, Bulat T. Idrisov, Kaire Innos, Kathryn H. Jacobsen, Panniyammakal Jeemon, Paul N. Jensen, Vivekanand Jha, Guohong Jiang, Jost B. Jonas, Knud Juel, Haidong Kan, Ida Kankindi, Nadim E. Karam, André Karch, Corine Kakizi Karema, Anil Kaul, Norito Kawakami, Dhruv S. Kazi, Andrew H. Kemp, Andre Pascal Kengne, Andre Keren, Maia Kereselidze, Yousef Saleh Khader, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan Khalifa, Ejaz Ahmed Khan, Young Ho Khang, Irma Khonelidze, Yohannes Kinfu, Jonas M. Kinge, Luke Knibbs, Yoshihiro Kokubo, S. Kosen, Barthelemy Kuate Defo, Veena S. Kulkarni, Chanda Kulkarni, Kaushalendra Kumar, Ravi B. Kumar, G. Anil Kumar, Gene F. Kwan, Taavi Lai, Arjun Lakshmana Balaji, Hilton Lam, Qing Lan, Van C. Lansingh, Heidi J. Larson, Anders Larsson, Jong-Tae Lee, James Leigh, Mall Leinsalu, Ricky Leung, Yichong Li, Yongmei Li, Graça Maria Ferreira De Lima, Hsien Ho Lin, Steven E. Lipshultz, Shiwei Liu, Yang Liu, Belinda K. Lloyd, Paulo A. Lotufo, Vasco Manuel Pedro Machado, Jennifer H. Maclachlan, Carlos Magis-Rodriguez, Marek Majdan, Christopher Chabila Mapoma, Wagner Marcenes, Melvin Barrientos Marzan, Joseph R. Masci, Mohammad Taufiq Mashal, Amanda J. Mason-Jones, Bongani M. Mayosi, Tasara T. Mazorodze, Abigail Cecilia McKay, Peter A. Meaney, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez, Yohannes Adama Melaku, Ziad A. Memish, Walter Mendoza, Ted R. Miller, Edward J. Mills, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Ali H. Mokdad, Glen Liddell Mola, Lorenzo Monasta, Marcella Montico, Ami R. Moore, Rintaro Mori, Wilkister Nyaora Moturi, Mitsuru Mukaigawara, Kinnari S. Murthy, Aliya Naheed, Kovin S. Naidoo, Luigi Naldi, Vinay Nangia, K. M Venkat Narayan, Denis Nash, Chakib Nejjari, Robert G. Nelson, Sudan Prasad Neupane, Charles R. Newton, Marie Ng, Muhammad Imran Nisar, Sandra Nolte, Ole F. Norheim, Vincent Nowaseb, Luke Nyakarahuka, In Hwan Oh, Takayoshi Ohkubo, Bolajoko O. Olusanya, Saad B. Omer, John Nelson Opio, Orish Ebere Orisakwe, Jeyaraj D. Pandian, Christina Papachristou, Angel J. Paternina Caicedo, Scott B. Patten, Vinod K. Paul, Boris Igor Pavlin, Neil Pearce, David M. Pereira, Aslam Pervaiz, Konrad Pesudovs, Max Petzold, Farshad Pourmalek, Dima Qato, Amado D. Quezada, D. Alex Quistberg, Anwar Rafay, Kazem Rahimi, Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar, Sajjad Ur Rahman, Murugesan Raju, Saleem M. Rana, Homie Razavi, Robert Quentin Reilly, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Jan Hendrik Richardus, Luca Ronfani, Nobhojit Roy, Nsanzimana Sabin, Mohammad Yahya Saeedi, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, Genesis May J Samonte, Monika Sawhney, Ione J C Schneider, David C. Schwebel, Soraya Seedat, Sadaf G. Sepanlou, Edson E. Servan-Mori, Sara Sheikhbahaei, Kenji Shibuya, Hwashin Hyun Shin, Ivy Shiue, Rupak Shivakoti, Inga Dora Sigfusdottir, Donald H. Silberberg, Andrea P. Silva, Edgar P. Simard, Jasvinder A. Singh, Vegard Skirbekk, Karen Sliwa, Samir Soneji, Sergey S. Soshnikov, Chandrashekhar T. Sreeramareddy, Vasiliki Kalliopi Stathopoulou, Konstantinos Stroumpoulis, Soumya Swaminathan, Bryan L. Sykes, Karen M. Tabb, Roberto Tchio Talongwa, Eric Yeboah Tenkorang, Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi, Alan J. Thomson, Andrew L. Thorne-Lyman, Jeffrey A. Towbin, Jefferson Traebert, Bach X. Tran, Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene, Miltiadis Tsilimbaris, Uche S. Uchendu, Kingsley N. Ukwaja, Selen Begüm Uzun, Andrew J. Vallely, Tommi J. Vasankari, N. Venketasubramanian, Francesco S. Violante, Vasiliy Victorovich Vlassov, Stein Emil Vollset, Stephen Waller, Mitchell T. Wallin, Linhong Wang, Xiao Rong Wang, Yanping Wang, Scott Weichenthal, Elisabete Weiderpass, Robert G. Weintraub, Ronny Westerman, Richard A. White, James D. Wilkinson, Thomas Neil Williams, Solomon Meseret Woldeyohannes, John Q. Wong, Gelin Xu, Yang C. Yang, Yuichiro Yano, Gokalp Kadri Yentur, Paul Yip, Naohiro Yonemoto, Seok-Jun Yoon, Mustafa Younis, Chuanhua Yu, Kim Yun Jin, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Yong Zhao, Yingfeng Zheng, Maigeng Zhou, Jun Zhu, Xiao Nong Zou, Alan D. Lopez, Theo Vos

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Abstract

Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1005-1070
Number of pages66
JournalThe Lancet
Volume384
Issue number9947
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014

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Malaria
Tuberculosis
HIV
Mortality
Incidence
Global Burden of Disease
Developing Countries
Cations
Cause of Death
Autopsy
Insecticide-Treated Bednets
Mothers
Eastern Europe
Latin America
Africa South of the Sahara
Validation Studies
Expert Testimony
Drug Resistance
Uncertainty
HIV Infections

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. / Murray, Christopher J L; Ortblad, Katrina F.; Guinovart, Caterina; Lim, Stephen S.; Wolock, Timothy M.; Roberts, D. Allen; Dansereau, Emily A.; Graetz, Nicholas; Barber, Ryan M.; Brown, Jonathan C.; Wang, Haidong; Duber, Herbert C.; Naghavi, Mohsen; Dicker, Daniel; Dandona, Lalit; Salomon, Joshua A.; Heuton, Kyle R.; Foreman, Kyle; Phillips, David E.; Fleming, Thomas D.; Flaxman, Abraham D.; Phillips, Bryan K.; Johnson, Elizabeth K.; Coggeshall, Megan S.; Abd-Allah, Foad; Abera, Semaw Ferede; Abraham, Jerry P.; Abubakar, Ibrahim; Abu-Raddad, Laith J.; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me; Achoki, Tom; Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi; Adou, Arsène Kouablan; Adsuar, José C.; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet; Akena, Dickens; Al Kahbouri, Mazin J.; Alasfoor, Deena; Albittar, Mohammed I.; Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel; Alegretti, Miguel Angel; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael; Alhabib, Samia; Ali, Raghib; Alla, Francois; Allen, Peter J.; Alsharif, Ubai; Alvarez, Elena; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson; Amankwaa, Adansi A.; Amare, Azmeraw T.; Amini, Hassan; Ammar, Walid; Anderson, Benjamin O.; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T; Anwari, Palwasha; Ärnlöv, Johan; Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S.; Artaman, Ali; Asghar, Rana J.; Assadi, Reza; Atkins, Lydia S.; Badawi, Alaa; Balakrishnan, Kalpana; Banerjee, Amitava; Basu, Sanjay; Beardsley, Justin; Bekele, Tolesa; Bell, Michelle L.; Bernabe, Eduardo; Beyene, Tariku Jibat; Bhala, Neeraj; Bhalla, Ashish; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.; Bin Abdulhak, Aref; Binagwaho, Agnes; Blore, Jed D.; Bora Basara, Berrak; Bose, Dipan; Brainin, Michael; Breitborde, Nicholas; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.; Catalá-López, Ferrán; Chadha, Vineet K.; Chang, Jung Chen; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia; Chuang, Ting Wu; Colomar, Mercedes; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull; Cooper, Cyrus; Courville, Karen J.; Cowie, Benjamin C.; Criqui, Michael H.; Dandona, Rakhi; Dayama, Anand; De Leo, Diego; Degenhardt, Louisa; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja; Deribe, Kebede; Des Jarlais, Don C.; Dessalegn, Muluken; Dharmaratne, Samath D.; Dilmen, Uur; Ding, Eric L.; Driscoll, Tim R.; Durrani, Adnan M.; Ellenbogen, Richard G.; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich; Esteghamati, Alireza; Faraon, Emerito Jose A; Farzadfar, Farshad; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.; Paleo, Urbano Fra; Gaffikin, Lynne; Gamkrelidze, Amiran; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho; Geleijnse, Johanna M.; Gessner, Bradford D.; Gibney, Katherine B.; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed; Glaser, Elizabeth L.; Gona, Philimon; Goto, Atsushi; Gouda, Hebe N.; Gugnani, Harish Chander; Gupta, Rajeev; Gupta, Rahul; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi; Hammami, Mouhanad; Hankey, Graeme J.; Harb, Hilda L.; Haro, Josep Maria; Havmoeller, Rasmus; Hay, Simon I.; Hedayati, Mohammad T.; Heredia Pi, Ileana B.; Hoek, Hans W.; Hornberger, John C.; Hosgood, H. Dean; Hotez, Peter J.; Hoy, Damian G.; Huang, John J.; Iburg, Kim M.; Idrisov, Bulat T.; Innos, Kaire; Jacobsen, Kathryn H.; Jeemon, Panniyammakal; Jensen, Paul N.; Jha, Vivekanand; Jiang, Guohong; Jonas, Jost B.; Juel, Knud; Kan, Haidong; Kankindi, Ida; Karam, Nadim E.; Karch, André; Karema, Corine Kakizi; Kaul, Anil; Kawakami, Norito; Kazi, Dhruv S.; Kemp, Andrew H.; Kengne, Andre Pascal; Keren, Andre; Kereselidze, Maia; Khader, Yousef Saleh; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed; Khang, Young Ho; Khonelidze, Irma; Kinfu, Yohannes; Kinge, Jonas M.; Knibbs, Luke; Kokubo, Yoshihiro; Kosen, S.; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kulkarni, Chanda; Kumar, Kaushalendra; Kumar, Ravi B.; Kumar, G. Anil; Kwan, Gene F.; Lai, Taavi; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun; Lam, Hilton; Lan, Qing; Lansingh, Van C.; Larson, Heidi J.; Larsson, Anders; Lee, Jong-Tae; Leigh, James; Leinsalu, Mall; Leung, Ricky; Li, Yichong; Li, Yongmei; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira; Lin, Hsien Ho; Lipshultz, Steven E.; Liu, Shiwei; Liu, Yang; Lloyd, Belinda K.; Lotufo, Paulo A.; Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro; Maclachlan, Jennifer H.; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos; Majdan, Marek; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila; Marcenes, Wagner; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos; Masci, Joseph R.; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq; Mason-Jones, Amanda J.; Mayosi, Bongani M.; Mazorodze, Tasara T.; McKay, Abigail Cecilia; Meaney, Peter A.; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola; Melaku, Yohannes Adama; Memish, Ziad A.; Mendoza, Walter; Miller, Ted R.; Mills, Edward J.; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin; Mokdad, Ali H.; Mola, Glen Liddell; Monasta, Lorenzo; Montico, Marcella; Moore, Ami R.; Mori, Rintaro; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru; Murthy, Kinnari S.; Naheed, Aliya; Naidoo, Kovin S.; Naldi, Luigi; Nangia, Vinay; Narayan, K. M Venkat; Nash, Denis; Nejjari, Chakib; Nelson, Robert G.; Neupane, Sudan Prasad; Newton, Charles R.; Ng, Marie; Nisar, Muhammad Imran; Nolte, Sandra; Norheim, Ole F.; Nowaseb, Vincent; Nyakarahuka, Luke; Oh, In Hwan; Ohkubo, Takayoshi; Olusanya, Bolajoko O.; Omer, Saad B.; Opio, John Nelson; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere; Pandian, Jeyaraj D.; Papachristou, Christina; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.; Patten, Scott B.; Paul, Vinod K.; Pavlin, Boris Igor; Pearce, Neil; Pereira, David M.; Pervaiz, Aslam; Pesudovs, Konrad; Petzold, Max; Pourmalek, Farshad; Qato, Dima; Quezada, Amado D.; Quistberg, D. Alex; Rafay, Anwar; Rahimi, Kazem; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa; Rahman, Sajjad Ur; Raju, Murugesan; Rana, Saleem M.; Razavi, Homie; Reilly, Robert Quentin; Remuzzi, Giuseppe; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Ronfani, Luca; Roy, Nobhojit; Sabin, Nsanzimana; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali; Samonte, Genesis May J; Sawhney, Monika; Schneider, Ione J C; Schwebel, David C.; Seedat, Soraya; Sepanlou, Sadaf G.; Servan-Mori, Edson E.; Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Shibuya, Kenji; Shin, Hwashin Hyun; Shiue, Ivy; Shivakoti, Rupak; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora; Silberberg, Donald H.; Silva, Andrea P.; Simard, Edgar P.; Singh, Jasvinder A.; Skirbekk, Vegard; Sliwa, Karen; Soneji, Samir; Soshnikov, Sergey S.; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos; Swaminathan, Soumya; Sykes, Bryan L.; Tabb, Karen M.; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman; Thomson, Alan J.; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.; Towbin, Jeffrey A.; Traebert, Jefferson; Tran, Bach X.; Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis; Uchendu, Uche S.; Ukwaja, Kingsley N.; Uzun, Selen Begüm; Vallely, Andrew J.; Vasankari, Tommi J.; Venketasubramanian, N.; Violante, Francesco S.; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich; Vollset, Stein Emil; Waller, Stephen; Wallin, Mitchell T.; Wang, Linhong; Wang, Xiao Rong; Wang, Yanping; Weichenthal, Scott; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Weintraub, Robert G.; Westerman, Ronny; White, Richard A.; Wilkinson, James D.; Williams, Thomas Neil; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret; Wong, John Q.; Xu, Gelin; Yang, Yang C.; Yano, Yuichiro; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri; Yip, Paul; Yonemoto, Naohiro; Yoon, Seok-Jun; Younis, Mustafa; Yu, Chuanhua; Jin, Kim Yun; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa; Zhao, Yong; Zheng, Yingfeng; Zhou, Maigeng; Zhu, Jun; Zou, Xiao Nong; Lopez, Alan D.; Vos, Theo.

In: The Lancet, Vol. 384, No. 9947, 2014, p. 1005-1070.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Murray, CJL, Ortblad, KF, Guinovart, C, Lim, SS, Wolock, TM, Roberts, DA, Dansereau, EA, Graetz, N, Barber, RM, Brown, JC, Wang, H, Duber, HC, Naghavi, M, Dicker, D, Dandona, L, Salomon, JA, Heuton, KR, Foreman, K, Phillips, DE, Fleming, TD, Flaxman, AD, Phillips, BK, Johnson, EK, Coggeshall, MS, Abd-Allah, F, Abera, SF, Abraham, JP, Abubakar, I, Abu-Raddad, LJ, Abu-Rmeileh, NM, Achoki, T, Adeyemo, AO, Adou, AK, Adsuar, JC, Agardh, EE, Akena, D, Al Kahbouri, MJ, Alasfoor, D, Albittar, MI, Alcalá-Cerra, G, Alegretti, MA, Alemu, ZA, Alfonso-Cristancho, R, Alhabib, S, Ali, R, Alla, F, Allen, PJ, Alsharif, U, Alvarez, E, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amankwaa, AA, Amare, AT, Amini, H, Ammar, W, Anderson, BO, Antonio, CAT, Anwari, P, Ärnlöv, J, Arsic Arsenijevic, VS, Artaman, A, Asghar, RJ, Assadi, R, Atkins, LS, Badawi, A, Balakrishnan, K, Banerjee, A, Basu, S, Beardsley, J, Bekele, T, Bell, ML, Bernabe, E, Beyene, TJ, Bhala, N, Bhalla, A, Bhutta, ZA, Bin Abdulhak, A, Binagwaho, A, Blore, JD, Bora Basara, B, Bose, D, Brainin, M, Breitborde, N, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Catalá-López, F, Chadha, VK, Chang, JC, Chiang, PPC, Chuang, TW, Colomar, M, Cooper, LT, Cooper, C, Courville, KJ, Cowie, BC, Criqui, MH, Dandona, R, Dayama, A, De Leo, D, Degenhardt, L, Del Pozo-Cruz, B, Deribe, K, Des Jarlais, DC, Dessalegn, M, Dharmaratne, SD, Dilmen, U, Ding, EL, Driscoll, TR, Durrani, AM, Ellenbogen, RG, Ermakov, SP, Esteghamati, A, Faraon, EJA, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, SM, Fijabi, DO, Forouzanfar, MH, Paleo, UF, Gaffikin, L, Gamkrelidze, A, Gankpé, FG, Geleijnse, JM, Gessner, BD, Gibney, KB, Ginawi, IAM, Glaser, EL, Gona, P, Goto, A, Gouda, HN, Gugnani, HC, Gupta, R, Gupta, R, Hafezi-Nejad, N, Hamadeh, RR, Hammami, M, Hankey, GJ, Harb, HL, Haro, JM, Havmoeller, R, Hay, SI, Hedayati, MT, Heredia Pi, IB, Hoek, HW, Hornberger, JC, Hosgood, HD, Hotez, PJ, Hoy, DG, Huang, JJ, Iburg, KM, Idrisov, BT, Innos, K, Jacobsen, KH, Jeemon, P, Jensen, PN, Jha, V, Jiang, G, Jonas, JB, Juel, K, Kan, H, Kankindi, I, Karam, NE, Karch, A, Karema, CK, Kaul, A, Kawakami, N, Kazi, DS, Kemp, AH, Kengne, AP, Keren, A, Kereselidze, M, Khader, YS, Khalifa, SEAH, Khan, EA, Khang, YH, Khonelidze, I, Kinfu, Y, Kinge, JM, Knibbs, L, Kokubo, Y, Kosen, S, Kuate Defo, B, Kulkarni, VS, Kulkarni, C, Kumar, K, Kumar, RB, Kumar, GA, Kwan, GF, Lai, T, Lakshmana Balaji, A, Lam, H, Lan, Q, Lansingh, VC, Larson, HJ, Larsson, A, Lee, J-T, Leigh, J, Leinsalu, M, Leung, R, Li, Y, Li, Y, De Lima, GMF, Lin, HH, Lipshultz, SE, Liu, S, Liu, Y, Lloyd, BK, Lotufo, PA, Machado, VMP, Maclachlan, JH, Magis-Rodriguez, C, Majdan, M, Mapoma, CC, Marcenes, W, Marzan, MB, Masci, JR, Mashal, MT, Mason-Jones, AJ, Mayosi, BM, Mazorodze, TT, McKay, AC, Meaney, PA, Mehndiratta, MM, Mejia-Rodriguez, F, Melaku, YA, Memish, ZA, Mendoza, W, Miller, TR, Mills, EJ, Mohammad, KA, Mokdad, AH, Mola, GL, Monasta, L, Montico, M, Moore, AR, Mori, R, Moturi, WN, Mukaigawara, M, Murthy, KS, Naheed, A, Naidoo, KS, Naldi, L, Nangia, V, Narayan, KMV, Nash, D, Nejjari, C, Nelson, RG, Neupane, SP, Newton, CR, Ng, M, Nisar, MI, Nolte, S, Norheim, OF, Nowaseb, V, Nyakarahuka, L, Oh, IH, Ohkubo, T, Olusanya, BO, Omer, SB, Opio, JN, Orisakwe, OE, Pandian, JD, Papachristou, C, Paternina Caicedo, AJ, Patten, SB, Paul, VK, Pavlin, BI, Pearce, N, Pereira, DM, Pervaiz, A, Pesudovs, K, Petzold, M, Pourmalek, F, Qato, D, Quezada, AD, Quistberg, DA, Rafay, A, Rahimi, K, Rahimi-Movaghar, V, Rahman, SU, Raju, M, Rana, SM, Razavi, H, Reilly, RQ, Remuzzi, G, Richardus, JH, Ronfani, L, Roy, N, Sabin, N, Saeedi, MY, Sahraian, MA, Samonte, GMJ, Sawhney, M, Schneider, IJC, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Sepanlou, SG, Servan-Mori, EE, Sheikhbahaei, S, Shibuya, K, Shin, HH, Shiue, I, Shivakoti, R, Sigfusdottir, ID, Silberberg, DH, Silva, AP, Simard, EP, Singh, JA, Skirbekk, V, Sliwa, K, Soneji, S, Soshnikov, SS, Sreeramareddy, CT, Stathopoulou, VK, Stroumpoulis, K, Swaminathan, S, Sykes, BL, Tabb, KM, Talongwa, RT, Tenkorang, EY, Terkawi, AS, Thomson, AJ, Thorne-Lyman, AL, Towbin, JA, Traebert, J, Tran, BX, Tsala Dimbuene, Z, Tsilimbaris, M, Uchendu, US, Ukwaja, KN, Uzun, SB, Vallely, AJ, Vasankari, TJ, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vlassov, VV, Vollset, SE, Waller, S, Wallin, MT, Wang, L, Wang, XR, Wang, Y, Weichenthal, S, Weiderpass, E, Weintraub, RG, Westerman, R, White, RA, Wilkinson, JD, Williams, TN, Woldeyohannes, SM, Wong, JQ, Xu, G, Yang, YC, Yano, Y, Yentur, GK, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Younis, M, Yu, C, Jin, KY, El Sayed Zaki, M, Zhao, Y, Zheng, Y, Zhou, M, Zhu, J, Zou, XN, Lopez, AD & Vos, T 2014, 'Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013', The Lancet, vol. 384, no. 9947, pp. 1005-1070. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8
Murray, Christopher J L ; Ortblad, Katrina F. ; Guinovart, Caterina ; Lim, Stephen S. ; Wolock, Timothy M. ; Roberts, D. Allen ; Dansereau, Emily A. ; Graetz, Nicholas ; Barber, Ryan M. ; Brown, Jonathan C. ; Wang, Haidong ; Duber, Herbert C. ; Naghavi, Mohsen ; Dicker, Daniel ; Dandona, Lalit ; Salomon, Joshua A. ; Heuton, Kyle R. ; Foreman, Kyle ; Phillips, David E. ; Fleming, Thomas D. ; Flaxman, Abraham D. ; Phillips, Bryan K. ; Johnson, Elizabeth K. ; Coggeshall, Megan S. ; Abd-Allah, Foad ; Abera, Semaw Ferede ; Abraham, Jerry P. ; Abubakar, Ibrahim ; Abu-Raddad, Laith J. ; Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me ; Achoki, Tom ; Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi ; Adou, Arsène Kouablan ; Adsuar, José C. ; Agardh, Emilie Elisabet ; Akena, Dickens ; Al Kahbouri, Mazin J. ; Alasfoor, Deena ; Albittar, Mohammed I. ; Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel ; Alegretti, Miguel Angel ; Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw ; Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael ; Alhabib, Samia ; Ali, Raghib ; Alla, Francois ; Allen, Peter J. ; Alsharif, Ubai ; Alvarez, Elena ; Alvis-Guzman, Nelson ; Amankwaa, Adansi A. ; Amare, Azmeraw T. ; Amini, Hassan ; Ammar, Walid ; Anderson, Benjamin O. ; Antonio, Carl Abelardo T ; Anwari, Palwasha ; Ärnlöv, Johan ; Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S. ; Artaman, Ali ; Asghar, Rana J. ; Assadi, Reza ; Atkins, Lydia S. ; Badawi, Alaa ; Balakrishnan, Kalpana ; Banerjee, Amitava ; Basu, Sanjay ; Beardsley, Justin ; Bekele, Tolesa ; Bell, Michelle L. ; Bernabe, Eduardo ; Beyene, Tariku Jibat ; Bhala, Neeraj ; Bhalla, Ashish ; Bhutta, Zulfiqar A. ; Bin Abdulhak, Aref ; Binagwaho, Agnes ; Blore, Jed D. ; Bora Basara, Berrak ; Bose, Dipan ; Brainin, Michael ; Breitborde, Nicholas ; Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A. ; Catalá-López, Ferrán ; Chadha, Vineet K. ; Chang, Jung Chen ; Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia ; Chuang, Ting Wu ; Colomar, Mercedes ; Cooper, Leslie Trumbull ; Cooper, Cyrus ; Courville, Karen J. ; Cowie, Benjamin C. ; Criqui, Michael H. ; Dandona, Rakhi ; Dayama, Anand ; De Leo, Diego ; Degenhardt, Louisa ; Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja ; Deribe, Kebede ; Des Jarlais, Don C. ; Dessalegn, Muluken ; Dharmaratne, Samath D. ; Dilmen, Uur ; Ding, Eric L. ; Driscoll, Tim R. ; Durrani, Adnan M. ; Ellenbogen, Richard G. ; Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich ; Esteghamati, Alireza ; Faraon, Emerito Jose A ; Farzadfar, Farshad ; Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad ; Fijabi, Daniel Obadare ; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H. ; Paleo, Urbano Fra ; Gaffikin, Lynne ; Gamkrelidze, Amiran ; Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho ; Geleijnse, Johanna M. ; Gessner, Bradford D. ; Gibney, Katherine B. ; Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed ; Glaser, Elizabeth L. ; Gona, Philimon ; Goto, Atsushi ; Gouda, Hebe N. ; Gugnani, Harish Chander ; Gupta, Rajeev ; Gupta, Rahul ; Hafezi-Nejad, Nima ; Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi ; Hammami, Mouhanad ; Hankey, Graeme J. ; Harb, Hilda L. ; Haro, Josep Maria ; Havmoeller, Rasmus ; Hay, Simon I. ; Hedayati, Mohammad T. ; Heredia Pi, Ileana B. ; Hoek, Hans W. ; Hornberger, John C. ; Hosgood, H. Dean ; Hotez, Peter J. ; Hoy, Damian G. ; Huang, John J. ; Iburg, Kim M. ; Idrisov, Bulat T. ; Innos, Kaire ; Jacobsen, Kathryn H. ; Jeemon, Panniyammakal ; Jensen, Paul N. ; Jha, Vivekanand ; Jiang, Guohong ; Jonas, Jost B. ; Juel, Knud ; Kan, Haidong ; Kankindi, Ida ; Karam, Nadim E. ; Karch, André ; Karema, Corine Kakizi ; Kaul, Anil ; Kawakami, Norito ; Kazi, Dhruv S. ; Kemp, Andrew H. ; Kengne, Andre Pascal ; Keren, Andre ; Kereselidze, Maia ; Khader, Yousef Saleh ; Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan ; Khan, Ejaz Ahmed ; Khang, Young Ho ; Khonelidze, Irma ; Kinfu, Yohannes ; Kinge, Jonas M. ; Knibbs, Luke ; Kokubo, Yoshihiro ; Kosen, S. ; Kuate Defo, Barthelemy ; Kulkarni, Veena S. ; Kulkarni, Chanda ; Kumar, Kaushalendra ; Kumar, Ravi B. ; Kumar, G. Anil ; Kwan, Gene F. ; Lai, Taavi ; Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun ; Lam, Hilton ; Lan, Qing ; Lansingh, Van C. ; Larson, Heidi J. ; Larsson, Anders ; Lee, Jong-Tae ; Leigh, James ; Leinsalu, Mall ; Leung, Ricky ; Li, Yichong ; Li, Yongmei ; De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira ; Lin, Hsien Ho ; Lipshultz, Steven E. ; Liu, Shiwei ; Liu, Yang ; Lloyd, Belinda K. ; Lotufo, Paulo A. ; Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro ; Maclachlan, Jennifer H. ; Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos ; Majdan, Marek ; Mapoma, Christopher Chabila ; Marcenes, Wagner ; Marzan, Melvin Barrientos ; Masci, Joseph R. ; Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq ; Mason-Jones, Amanda J. ; Mayosi, Bongani M. ; Mazorodze, Tasara T. ; McKay, Abigail Cecilia ; Meaney, Peter A. ; Mehndiratta, Man Mohan ; Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola ; Melaku, Yohannes Adama ; Memish, Ziad A. ; Mendoza, Walter ; Miller, Ted R. ; Mills, Edward J. ; Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin ; Mokdad, Ali H. ; Mola, Glen Liddell ; Monasta, Lorenzo ; Montico, Marcella ; Moore, Ami R. ; Mori, Rintaro ; Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora ; Mukaigawara, Mitsuru ; Murthy, Kinnari S. ; Naheed, Aliya ; Naidoo, Kovin S. ; Naldi, Luigi ; Nangia, Vinay ; Narayan, K. M Venkat ; Nash, Denis ; Nejjari, Chakib ; Nelson, Robert G. ; Neupane, Sudan Prasad ; Newton, Charles R. ; Ng, Marie ; Nisar, Muhammad Imran ; Nolte, Sandra ; Norheim, Ole F. ; Nowaseb, Vincent ; Nyakarahuka, Luke ; Oh, In Hwan ; Ohkubo, Takayoshi ; Olusanya, Bolajoko O. ; Omer, Saad B. ; Opio, John Nelson ; Orisakwe, Orish Ebere ; Pandian, Jeyaraj D. ; Papachristou, Christina ; Paternina Caicedo, Angel J. ; Patten, Scott B. ; Paul, Vinod K. ; Pavlin, Boris Igor ; Pearce, Neil ; Pereira, David M. ; Pervaiz, Aslam ; Pesudovs, Konrad ; Petzold, Max ; Pourmalek, Farshad ; Qato, Dima ; Quezada, Amado D. ; Quistberg, D. Alex ; Rafay, Anwar ; Rahimi, Kazem ; Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa ; Rahman, Sajjad Ur ; Raju, Murugesan ; Rana, Saleem M. ; Razavi, Homie ; Reilly, Robert Quentin ; Remuzzi, Giuseppe ; Richardus, Jan Hendrik ; Ronfani, Luca ; Roy, Nobhojit ; Sabin, Nsanzimana ; Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya ; Sahraian, Mohammad Ali ; Samonte, Genesis May J ; Sawhney, Monika ; Schneider, Ione J C ; Schwebel, David C. ; Seedat, Soraya ; Sepanlou, Sadaf G. ; Servan-Mori, Edson E. ; Sheikhbahaei, Sara ; Shibuya, Kenji ; Shin, Hwashin Hyun ; Shiue, Ivy ; Shivakoti, Rupak ; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora ; Silberberg, Donald H. ; Silva, Andrea P. ; Simard, Edgar P. ; Singh, Jasvinder A. ; Skirbekk, Vegard ; Sliwa, Karen ; Soneji, Samir ; Soshnikov, Sergey S. ; Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T. ; Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi ; Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos ; Swaminathan, Soumya ; Sykes, Bryan L. ; Tabb, Karen M. ; Talongwa, Roberto Tchio ; Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah ; Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman ; Thomson, Alan J. ; Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L. ; Towbin, Jeffrey A. ; Traebert, Jefferson ; Tran, Bach X. ; Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie ; Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis ; Uchendu, Uche S. ; Ukwaja, Kingsley N. ; Uzun, Selen Begüm ; Vallely, Andrew J. ; Vasankari, Tommi J. ; Venketasubramanian, N. ; Violante, Francesco S. ; Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich ; Vollset, Stein Emil ; Waller, Stephen ; Wallin, Mitchell T. ; Wang, Linhong ; Wang, Xiao Rong ; Wang, Yanping ; Weichenthal, Scott ; Weiderpass, Elisabete ; Weintraub, Robert G. ; Westerman, Ronny ; White, Richard A. ; Wilkinson, James D. ; Williams, Thomas Neil ; Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret ; Wong, John Q. ; Xu, Gelin ; Yang, Yang C. ; Yano, Yuichiro ; Yentur, Gokalp Kadri ; Yip, Paul ; Yonemoto, Naohiro ; Yoon, Seok-Jun ; Younis, Mustafa ; Yu, Chuanhua ; Jin, Kim Yun ; El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa ; Zhao, Yong ; Zheng, Yingfeng ; Zhou, Maigeng ; Zhu, Jun ; Zou, Xiao Nong ; Lopez, Alan D. ; Vos, Theo. / Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013 : A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. In: The Lancet. 2014 ; Vol. 384, No. 9947. pp. 1005-1070.
@article{df900487bc7e433ca1d30cb24ab8010e,
title = "Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013",
abstract = "Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95{\%} uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3{\%} (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0{\%} of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7{\%} of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5{\%} (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7{\%} smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.",
author = "Murray, {Christopher J L} and Ortblad, {Katrina F.} and Caterina Guinovart and Lim, {Stephen S.} and Wolock, {Timothy M.} and Roberts, {D. Allen} and Dansereau, {Emily A.} and Nicholas Graetz and Barber, {Ryan M.} and Brown, {Jonathan C.} and Haidong Wang and Duber, {Herbert C.} and Mohsen Naghavi and Daniel Dicker and Lalit Dandona and Salomon, {Joshua A.} and Heuton, {Kyle R.} and Kyle Foreman and Phillips, {David E.} and Fleming, {Thomas D.} and Flaxman, {Abraham D.} and Phillips, {Bryan K.} and Johnson, {Elizabeth K.} and Coggeshall, {Megan S.} and Foad Abd-Allah and Abera, {Semaw Ferede} and Abraham, {Jerry P.} and Ibrahim Abubakar and Abu-Raddad, {Laith J.} and Abu-Rmeileh, {Niveen Me} and Tom Achoki and Adeyemo, {Austine Olufemi} and Adou, {Ars{\`e}ne Kouablan} and Adsuar, {Jos{\'e} C.} and Agardh, {Emilie Elisabet} and Dickens Akena and {Al Kahbouri}, {Mazin J.} and Deena Alasfoor and Albittar, {Mohammed I.} and Gabriel Alcal{\'a}-Cerra and Alegretti, {Miguel Angel} and Alemu, {Zewdie Aderaw} and Rafael Alfonso-Cristancho and Samia Alhabib and Raghib Ali and Francois Alla and Allen, {Peter J.} and Ubai Alsharif and Elena Alvarez and Nelson Alvis-Guzman and Amankwaa, {Adansi A.} and Amare, {Azmeraw T.} and Hassan Amini and Walid Ammar and Anderson, {Benjamin O.} and Antonio, {Carl Abelardo T} and Palwasha Anwari and Johan {\"A}rnl{\"o}v and {Arsic Arsenijevic}, {Valentina S.} and Ali Artaman and Asghar, {Rana J.} and Reza Assadi and Atkins, {Lydia S.} and Alaa Badawi and Kalpana Balakrishnan and Amitava Banerjee and Sanjay Basu and Justin Beardsley and Tolesa Bekele and Bell, {Michelle L.} and Eduardo Bernabe and Beyene, {Tariku Jibat} and Neeraj Bhala and Ashish Bhalla and Bhutta, {Zulfiqar A.} and {Bin Abdulhak}, Aref and Agnes Binagwaho and Blore, {Jed D.} and {Bora Basara}, Berrak and Dipan Bose and Michael Brainin and Nicholas Breitborde and Casta{\~n}eda-Orjuela, {Carlos A.} and Ferr{\'a}n Catal{\'a}-L{\'o}pez and Chadha, {Vineet K.} and Chang, {Jung Chen} and Chiang, {Peggy Pei Chia} and Chuang, {Ting Wu} and Mercedes Colomar and Cooper, {Leslie Trumbull} and Cyrus Cooper and Courville, {Karen J.} and Cowie, {Benjamin C.} and Criqui, {Michael H.} and Rakhi Dandona and Anand Dayama and {De Leo}, Diego and Louisa Degenhardt and {Del Pozo-Cruz}, Borja and Kebede Deribe and {Des Jarlais}, {Don C.} and Muluken Dessalegn and Dharmaratne, {Samath D.} and Uur Dilmen and Ding, {Eric L.} and Driscoll, {Tim R.} and Durrani, {Adnan M.} and Ellenbogen, {Richard G.} and Ermakov, {Sergey Petrovich} and Alireza Esteghamati and Faraon, {Emerito Jose A} and Farshad Farzadfar and Fereshtehnejad, {Seyed Mohammad} and Fijabi, {Daniel Obadare} and Forouzanfar, {Mohammad H.} and Paleo, {Urbano Fra} and Lynne Gaffikin and Amiran Gamkrelidze and Gankp{\'e}, {Fortun{\'e} Gb{\`e}toho} and Geleijnse, {Johanna M.} and Gessner, {Bradford D.} and Gibney, {Katherine B.} and Ginawi, {Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed} and Glaser, {Elizabeth L.} and Philimon Gona and Atsushi Goto and Gouda, {Hebe N.} and Gugnani, {Harish Chander} and Rajeev Gupta and Rahul Gupta and Nima Hafezi-Nejad and Hamadeh, {Randah Ribhi} and Mouhanad Hammami and Hankey, {Graeme J.} and Harb, {Hilda L.} and Haro, {Josep Maria} and Rasmus Havmoeller and Hay, {Simon I.} and Hedayati, {Mohammad T.} and {Heredia Pi}, {Ileana B.} and Hoek, {Hans W.} and Hornberger, {John C.} and Hosgood, {H. Dean} and Hotez, {Peter J.} and Hoy, {Damian G.} and Huang, {John J.} and Iburg, {Kim M.} and Idrisov, {Bulat T.} and Kaire Innos and Jacobsen, {Kathryn H.} and Panniyammakal Jeemon and Jensen, {Paul N.} and Vivekanand Jha and Guohong Jiang and Jonas, {Jost B.} and Knud Juel and Haidong Kan and Ida Kankindi and Karam, {Nadim E.} and Andr{\'e} Karch and Karema, {Corine Kakizi} and Anil Kaul and Norito Kawakami and Kazi, {Dhruv S.} and Kemp, {Andrew H.} and Kengne, {Andre Pascal} and Andre Keren and Maia Kereselidze and Khader, {Yousef Saleh} and Khalifa, {Shams Eldin Ali Hassan} and Khan, {Ejaz Ahmed} and Khang, {Young Ho} and Irma Khonelidze and Yohannes Kinfu and Kinge, {Jonas M.} and Luke Knibbs and Yoshihiro Kokubo and S. Kosen and {Kuate Defo}, Barthelemy and Kulkarni, {Veena S.} and Chanda Kulkarni and Kaushalendra Kumar and Kumar, {Ravi B.} and Kumar, {G. Anil} and Kwan, {Gene F.} and Taavi Lai and {Lakshmana Balaji}, Arjun and Hilton Lam and Qing Lan and Lansingh, {Van C.} and Larson, {Heidi J.} and Anders Larsson and Jong-Tae Lee and James Leigh and Mall Leinsalu and Ricky Leung and Yichong Li and Yongmei Li and {De Lima}, {Gra{\cc}a Maria Ferreira} and Lin, {Hsien Ho} and Lipshultz, {Steven E.} and Shiwei Liu and Yang Liu and Lloyd, {Belinda K.} and Lotufo, {Paulo A.} and Machado, {Vasco Manuel Pedro} and Maclachlan, {Jennifer H.} and Carlos Magis-Rodriguez and Marek Majdan and Mapoma, {Christopher Chabila} and Wagner Marcenes and Marzan, {Melvin Barrientos} and Masci, {Joseph R.} and Mashal, {Mohammad Taufiq} and Mason-Jones, {Amanda J.} and Mayosi, {Bongani M.} and Mazorodze, {Tasara T.} and McKay, {Abigail Cecilia} and Meaney, {Peter A.} and Mehndiratta, {Man Mohan} and Fabiola Mejia-Rodriguez and Melaku, {Yohannes Adama} and Memish, {Ziad A.} and Walter Mendoza and Miller, {Ted R.} and Mills, {Edward J.} and Mohammad, {Karzan Abdulmuhsin} and Mokdad, {Ali H.} and Mola, {Glen Liddell} and Lorenzo Monasta and Marcella Montico and Moore, {Ami R.} and Rintaro Mori and Moturi, {Wilkister Nyaora} and Mitsuru Mukaigawara and Murthy, {Kinnari S.} and Aliya Naheed and Naidoo, {Kovin S.} and Luigi Naldi and Vinay Nangia and Narayan, {K. M Venkat} and Denis Nash and Chakib Nejjari and Nelson, {Robert G.} and Neupane, {Sudan Prasad} and Newton, {Charles R.} and Marie Ng and Nisar, {Muhammad Imran} and Sandra Nolte and Norheim, {Ole F.} and Vincent Nowaseb and Luke Nyakarahuka and Oh, {In Hwan} and Takayoshi Ohkubo and Olusanya, {Bolajoko O.} and Omer, {Saad B.} and Opio, {John Nelson} and Orisakwe, {Orish Ebere} and Pandian, {Jeyaraj D.} and Christina Papachristou and {Paternina Caicedo}, {Angel J.} and Patten, {Scott B.} and Paul, {Vinod K.} and Pavlin, {Boris Igor} and Neil Pearce and Pereira, {David M.} and Aslam Pervaiz and Konrad Pesudovs and Max Petzold and Farshad Pourmalek and Dima Qato and Quezada, {Amado D.} and Quistberg, {D. Alex} and Anwar Rafay and Kazem Rahimi and Vafa Rahimi-Movaghar and Rahman, {Sajjad Ur} and Murugesan Raju and Rana, {Saleem M.} and Homie Razavi and Reilly, {Robert Quentin} and Giuseppe Remuzzi and Richardus, {Jan Hendrik} and Luca Ronfani and Nobhojit Roy and Nsanzimana Sabin and Saeedi, {Mohammad Yahya} and Sahraian, {Mohammad Ali} and Samonte, {Genesis May J} and Monika Sawhney and Schneider, {Ione J C} and Schwebel, {David C.} and Soraya Seedat and Sepanlou, {Sadaf G.} and Servan-Mori, {Edson E.} and Sara Sheikhbahaei and Kenji Shibuya and Shin, {Hwashin Hyun} and Ivy Shiue and Rupak Shivakoti and Sigfusdottir, {Inga Dora} and Silberberg, {Donald H.} and Silva, {Andrea P.} and Simard, {Edgar P.} and Singh, {Jasvinder A.} and Vegard Skirbekk and Karen Sliwa and Samir Soneji and Soshnikov, {Sergey S.} and Sreeramareddy, {Chandrashekhar T.} and Stathopoulou, {Vasiliki Kalliopi} and Konstantinos Stroumpoulis and Soumya Swaminathan and Sykes, {Bryan L.} and Tabb, {Karen M.} and Talongwa, {Roberto Tchio} and Tenkorang, {Eric Yeboah} and Terkawi, {Abdullah Sulieman} and Thomson, {Alan J.} and Thorne-Lyman, {Andrew L.} and Towbin, {Jeffrey A.} and Jefferson Traebert and Tran, {Bach X.} and {Tsala Dimbuene}, Zacharie and Miltiadis Tsilimbaris and Uchendu, {Uche S.} and Ukwaja, {Kingsley N.} and Uzun, {Selen Beg{\"u}m} and Vallely, {Andrew J.} and Vasankari, {Tommi J.} and N. Venketasubramanian and Violante, {Francesco S.} and Vlassov, {Vasiliy Victorovich} and Vollset, {Stein Emil} and Stephen Waller and Wallin, {Mitchell T.} and Linhong Wang and Wang, {Xiao Rong} and Yanping Wang and Scott Weichenthal and Elisabete Weiderpass and Weintraub, {Robert G.} and Ronny Westerman and White, {Richard A.} and Wilkinson, {James D.} and Williams, {Thomas Neil} and Woldeyohannes, {Solomon Meseret} and Wong, {John Q.} and Gelin Xu and Yang, {Yang C.} and Yuichiro Yano and Yentur, {Gokalp Kadri} and Paul Yip and Naohiro Yonemoto and Seok-Jun Yoon and Mustafa Younis and Chuanhua Yu and Jin, {Kim Yun} and {El Sayed Zaki}, Maysaa and Yong Zhao and Yingfeng Zheng and Maigeng Zhou and Jun Zhu and Zou, {Xiao Nong} and Lopez, {Alan D.} and Theo Vos",
year = "2014",
doi = "10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8",
language = "English",
volume = "384",
pages = "1005--1070",
journal = "The Lancet",
issn = "0140-6736",
publisher = "Elsevier Limited",
number = "9947",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Global, regional, and national incidence and mortality for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria during 1990-2013

T2 - A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

AU - Murray, Christopher J L

AU - Ortblad, Katrina F.

AU - Guinovart, Caterina

AU - Lim, Stephen S.

AU - Wolock, Timothy M.

AU - Roberts, D. Allen

AU - Dansereau, Emily A.

AU - Graetz, Nicholas

AU - Barber, Ryan M.

AU - Brown, Jonathan C.

AU - Wang, Haidong

AU - Duber, Herbert C.

AU - Naghavi, Mohsen

AU - Dicker, Daniel

AU - Dandona, Lalit

AU - Salomon, Joshua A.

AU - Heuton, Kyle R.

AU - Foreman, Kyle

AU - Phillips, David E.

AU - Fleming, Thomas D.

AU - Flaxman, Abraham D.

AU - Phillips, Bryan K.

AU - Johnson, Elizabeth K.

AU - Coggeshall, Megan S.

AU - Abd-Allah, Foad

AU - Abera, Semaw Ferede

AU - Abraham, Jerry P.

AU - Abubakar, Ibrahim

AU - Abu-Raddad, Laith J.

AU - Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen Me

AU - Achoki, Tom

AU - Adeyemo, Austine Olufemi

AU - Adou, Arsène Kouablan

AU - Adsuar, José C.

AU - Agardh, Emilie Elisabet

AU - Akena, Dickens

AU - Al Kahbouri, Mazin J.

AU - Alasfoor, Deena

AU - Albittar, Mohammed I.

AU - Alcalá-Cerra, Gabriel

AU - Alegretti, Miguel Angel

AU - Alemu, Zewdie Aderaw

AU - Alfonso-Cristancho, Rafael

AU - Alhabib, Samia

AU - Ali, Raghib

AU - Alla, Francois

AU - Allen, Peter J.

AU - Alsharif, Ubai

AU - Alvarez, Elena

AU - Alvis-Guzman, Nelson

AU - Amankwaa, Adansi A.

AU - Amare, Azmeraw T.

AU - Amini, Hassan

AU - Ammar, Walid

AU - Anderson, Benjamin O.

AU - Antonio, Carl Abelardo T

AU - Anwari, Palwasha

AU - Ärnlöv, Johan

AU - Arsic Arsenijevic, Valentina S.

AU - Artaman, Ali

AU - Asghar, Rana J.

AU - Assadi, Reza

AU - Atkins, Lydia S.

AU - Badawi, Alaa

AU - Balakrishnan, Kalpana

AU - Banerjee, Amitava

AU - Basu, Sanjay

AU - Beardsley, Justin

AU - Bekele, Tolesa

AU - Bell, Michelle L.

AU - Bernabe, Eduardo

AU - Beyene, Tariku Jibat

AU - Bhala, Neeraj

AU - Bhalla, Ashish

AU - Bhutta, Zulfiqar A.

AU - Bin Abdulhak, Aref

AU - Binagwaho, Agnes

AU - Blore, Jed D.

AU - Bora Basara, Berrak

AU - Bose, Dipan

AU - Brainin, Michael

AU - Breitborde, Nicholas

AU - Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A.

AU - Catalá-López, Ferrán

AU - Chadha, Vineet K.

AU - Chang, Jung Chen

AU - Chiang, Peggy Pei Chia

AU - Chuang, Ting Wu

AU - Colomar, Mercedes

AU - Cooper, Leslie Trumbull

AU - Cooper, Cyrus

AU - Courville, Karen J.

AU - Cowie, Benjamin C.

AU - Criqui, Michael H.

AU - Dandona, Rakhi

AU - Dayama, Anand

AU - De Leo, Diego

AU - Degenhardt, Louisa

AU - Del Pozo-Cruz, Borja

AU - Deribe, Kebede

AU - Des Jarlais, Don C.

AU - Dessalegn, Muluken

AU - Dharmaratne, Samath D.

AU - Dilmen, Uur

AU - Ding, Eric L.

AU - Driscoll, Tim R.

AU - Durrani, Adnan M.

AU - Ellenbogen, Richard G.

AU - Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich

AU - Esteghamati, Alireza

AU - Faraon, Emerito Jose A

AU - Farzadfar, Farshad

AU - Fereshtehnejad, Seyed Mohammad

AU - Fijabi, Daniel Obadare

AU - Forouzanfar, Mohammad H.

AU - Paleo, Urbano Fra

AU - Gaffikin, Lynne

AU - Gamkrelidze, Amiran

AU - Gankpé, Fortuné Gbètoho

AU - Geleijnse, Johanna M.

AU - Gessner, Bradford D.

AU - Gibney, Katherine B.

AU - Ginawi, Ibrahim Abdelmageem Mohamed

AU - Glaser, Elizabeth L.

AU - Gona, Philimon

AU - Goto, Atsushi

AU - Gouda, Hebe N.

AU - Gugnani, Harish Chander

AU - Gupta, Rajeev

AU - Gupta, Rahul

AU - Hafezi-Nejad, Nima

AU - Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi

AU - Hammami, Mouhanad

AU - Hankey, Graeme J.

AU - Harb, Hilda L.

AU - Haro, Josep Maria

AU - Havmoeller, Rasmus

AU - Hay, Simon I.

AU - Hedayati, Mohammad T.

AU - Heredia Pi, Ileana B.

AU - Hoek, Hans W.

AU - Hornberger, John C.

AU - Hosgood, H. Dean

AU - Hotez, Peter J.

AU - Hoy, Damian G.

AU - Huang, John J.

AU - Iburg, Kim M.

AU - Idrisov, Bulat T.

AU - Innos, Kaire

AU - Jacobsen, Kathryn H.

AU - Jeemon, Panniyammakal

AU - Jensen, Paul N.

AU - Jha, Vivekanand

AU - Jiang, Guohong

AU - Jonas, Jost B.

AU - Juel, Knud

AU - Kan, Haidong

AU - Kankindi, Ida

AU - Karam, Nadim E.

AU - Karch, André

AU - Karema, Corine Kakizi

AU - Kaul, Anil

AU - Kawakami, Norito

AU - Kazi, Dhruv S.

AU - Kemp, Andrew H.

AU - Kengne, Andre Pascal

AU - Keren, Andre

AU - Kereselidze, Maia

AU - Khader, Yousef Saleh

AU - Khalifa, Shams Eldin Ali Hassan

AU - Khan, Ejaz Ahmed

AU - Khang, Young Ho

AU - Khonelidze, Irma

AU - Kinfu, Yohannes

AU - Kinge, Jonas M.

AU - Knibbs, Luke

AU - Kokubo, Yoshihiro

AU - Kosen, S.

AU - Kuate Defo, Barthelemy

AU - Kulkarni, Veena S.

AU - Kulkarni, Chanda

AU - Kumar, Kaushalendra

AU - Kumar, Ravi B.

AU - Kumar, G. Anil

AU - Kwan, Gene F.

AU - Lai, Taavi

AU - Lakshmana Balaji, Arjun

AU - Lam, Hilton

AU - Lan, Qing

AU - Lansingh, Van C.

AU - Larson, Heidi J.

AU - Larsson, Anders

AU - Lee, Jong-Tae

AU - Leigh, James

AU - Leinsalu, Mall

AU - Leung, Ricky

AU - Li, Yichong

AU - Li, Yongmei

AU - De Lima, Graça Maria Ferreira

AU - Lin, Hsien Ho

AU - Lipshultz, Steven E.

AU - Liu, Shiwei

AU - Liu, Yang

AU - Lloyd, Belinda K.

AU - Lotufo, Paulo A.

AU - Machado, Vasco Manuel Pedro

AU - Maclachlan, Jennifer H.

AU - Magis-Rodriguez, Carlos

AU - Majdan, Marek

AU - Mapoma, Christopher Chabila

AU - Marcenes, Wagner

AU - Marzan, Melvin Barrientos

AU - Masci, Joseph R.

AU - Mashal, Mohammad Taufiq

AU - Mason-Jones, Amanda J.

AU - Mayosi, Bongani M.

AU - Mazorodze, Tasara T.

AU - McKay, Abigail Cecilia

AU - Meaney, Peter A.

AU - Mehndiratta, Man Mohan

AU - Mejia-Rodriguez, Fabiola

AU - Melaku, Yohannes Adama

AU - Memish, Ziad A.

AU - Mendoza, Walter

AU - Miller, Ted R.

AU - Mills, Edward J.

AU - Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin

AU - Mokdad, Ali H.

AU - Mola, Glen Liddell

AU - Monasta, Lorenzo

AU - Montico, Marcella

AU - Moore, Ami R.

AU - Mori, Rintaro

AU - Moturi, Wilkister Nyaora

AU - Mukaigawara, Mitsuru

AU - Murthy, Kinnari S.

AU - Naheed, Aliya

AU - Naidoo, Kovin S.

AU - Naldi, Luigi

AU - Nangia, Vinay

AU - Narayan, K. M Venkat

AU - Nash, Denis

AU - Nejjari, Chakib

AU - Nelson, Robert G.

AU - Neupane, Sudan Prasad

AU - Newton, Charles R.

AU - Ng, Marie

AU - Nisar, Muhammad Imran

AU - Nolte, Sandra

AU - Norheim, Ole F.

AU - Nowaseb, Vincent

AU - Nyakarahuka, Luke

AU - Oh, In Hwan

AU - Ohkubo, Takayoshi

AU - Olusanya, Bolajoko O.

AU - Omer, Saad B.

AU - Opio, John Nelson

AU - Orisakwe, Orish Ebere

AU - Pandian, Jeyaraj D.

AU - Papachristou, Christina

AU - Paternina Caicedo, Angel J.

AU - Patten, Scott B.

AU - Paul, Vinod K.

AU - Pavlin, Boris Igor

AU - Pearce, Neil

AU - Pereira, David M.

AU - Pervaiz, Aslam

AU - Pesudovs, Konrad

AU - Petzold, Max

AU - Pourmalek, Farshad

AU - Qato, Dima

AU - Quezada, Amado D.

AU - Quistberg, D. Alex

AU - Rafay, Anwar

AU - Rahimi, Kazem

AU - Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa

AU - Rahman, Sajjad Ur

AU - Raju, Murugesan

AU - Rana, Saleem M.

AU - Razavi, Homie

AU - Reilly, Robert Quentin

AU - Remuzzi, Giuseppe

AU - Richardus, Jan Hendrik

AU - Ronfani, Luca

AU - Roy, Nobhojit

AU - Sabin, Nsanzimana

AU - Saeedi, Mohammad Yahya

AU - Sahraian, Mohammad Ali

AU - Samonte, Genesis May J

AU - Sawhney, Monika

AU - Schneider, Ione J C

AU - Schwebel, David C.

AU - Seedat, Soraya

AU - Sepanlou, Sadaf G.

AU - Servan-Mori, Edson E.

AU - Sheikhbahaei, Sara

AU - Shibuya, Kenji

AU - Shin, Hwashin Hyun

AU - Shiue, Ivy

AU - Shivakoti, Rupak

AU - Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora

AU - Silberberg, Donald H.

AU - Silva, Andrea P.

AU - Simard, Edgar P.

AU - Singh, Jasvinder A.

AU - Skirbekk, Vegard

AU - Sliwa, Karen

AU - Soneji, Samir

AU - Soshnikov, Sergey S.

AU - Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T.

AU - Stathopoulou, Vasiliki Kalliopi

AU - Stroumpoulis, Konstantinos

AU - Swaminathan, Soumya

AU - Sykes, Bryan L.

AU - Tabb, Karen M.

AU - Talongwa, Roberto Tchio

AU - Tenkorang, Eric Yeboah

AU - Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman

AU - Thomson, Alan J.

AU - Thorne-Lyman, Andrew L.

AU - Towbin, Jeffrey A.

AU - Traebert, Jefferson

AU - Tran, Bach X.

AU - Tsala Dimbuene, Zacharie

AU - Tsilimbaris, Miltiadis

AU - Uchendu, Uche S.

AU - Ukwaja, Kingsley N.

AU - Uzun, Selen Begüm

AU - Vallely, Andrew J.

AU - Vasankari, Tommi J.

AU - Venketasubramanian, N.

AU - Violante, Francesco S.

AU - Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich

AU - Vollset, Stein Emil

AU - Waller, Stephen

AU - Wallin, Mitchell T.

AU - Wang, Linhong

AU - Wang, Xiao Rong

AU - Wang, Yanping

AU - Weichenthal, Scott

AU - Weiderpass, Elisabete

AU - Weintraub, Robert G.

AU - Westerman, Ronny

AU - White, Richard A.

AU - Wilkinson, James D.

AU - Williams, Thomas Neil

AU - Woldeyohannes, Solomon Meseret

AU - Wong, John Q.

AU - Xu, Gelin

AU - Yang, Yang C.

AU - Yano, Yuichiro

AU - Yentur, Gokalp Kadri

AU - Yip, Paul

AU - Yonemoto, Naohiro

AU - Yoon, Seok-Jun

AU - Younis, Mustafa

AU - Yu, Chuanhua

AU - Jin, Kim Yun

AU - El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa

AU - Zhao, Yong

AU - Zheng, Yingfeng

AU - Zhou, Maigeng

AU - Zhu, Jun

AU - Zou, Xiao Nong

AU - Lopez, Alan D.

AU - Vos, Theo

PY - 2014

Y1 - 2014

N2 - Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

AB - Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occured since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modifi ed based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fi t vital registration data corrected for misclassifi cation of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifi cations, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specifi c mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010-13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death became negative after 2000. Tuberculosis in HIV-negative individuals disproportionately occurs in men and boys (versus women and girls); 64·0% of cases (63·6 to 64·3) and 64·7% of deaths (60·8 to 70·3). Globally, malaria cases and deaths grew rapidly from 1990 reaching a peak of 232 million cases (143 million to 387 million) in 2003 and 1·2 million deaths (1·1 million to 1·4 million) in 2004. Since 2004, child deaths from malaria in sub-Saharan Africa have decreased by 31·5% (15·7 to 44·1). Outside of Africa, malaria mortality has been steadily decreasing since 1990. Interpretation Our estimates of the number of people living with HIV are 18·7% smaller than UNAIDS's estimates in 2012. The number of people living with malaria is larger than estimated by WHO. Incidence rates for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria have all decreased since 2000. At the global level, upward trends for malaria and HIV deaths have been reversed and declines in tuberculosis deaths have accelerated. 101 countries (74 of which are developing) still have increasing HIV incidence. Substantial progress since the Millennium Declaration is an encouraging sign of the effect of global action. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

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U2 - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8

DO - 10.1016/S0140-6736(14)60844-8

M3 - Article

C2 - 25059949

AN - SCOPUS:84907348191

VL - 384

SP - 1005

EP - 1070

JO - The Lancet

JF - The Lancet

SN - 0140-6736

IS - 9947

ER -