Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth

Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

2 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity. We examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region's population and output. We then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. Our results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1-30
Number of pages30
JournalADB Economics Working Paper Series
Volume281
Publication statusPublished - 2011 Oct 1

Fingerprint

aging population
economic growth
total factor productivity
economic impact
savings
labor force participation
capital accumulation
population development
projection
productivity
economy
Asia
Population aging
Economic growth
participation
labour force
effect
Labor force participation
Dividends
Total factor productivity

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations

Cite this

Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth. / Park, Donghyun; Shin, Kwanho.

In: ADB Economics Working Paper Series, Vol. 281, 01.10.2011, p. 1-30.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

@article{2b334487a769486380c5d3c8a88e5ecf,
title = "Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth",
abstract = "The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity. We examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region's population and output. We then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. Our results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.",
author = "Donghyun Park and Kwanho Shin",
year = "2011",
month = "10",
day = "1",
language = "English",
volume = "281",
pages = "1--30",
journal = "ERD Working Paper Series",
issn = "1655-5252",
publisher = "Asian Development Bank",

}

TY - JOUR

T1 - Impact of population aging on Asia's future growth

AU - Park, Donghyun

AU - Shin, Kwanho

PY - 2011/10/1

Y1 - 2011/10/1

N2 - The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity. We examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region's population and output. We then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. Our results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.

AB - The demographic dividend that contributed substantially to economic growth in developing Asia in the past is dissipating. Population aging affects growth through savings, capital accumulation, labor force participation, and total factor productivity. We examined the impact of aging on those four channels in 12 developing Asian economies that collectively make up the bulk of the region's population and output. We then made projections about the effects of demographic change on the economic growth of the 12 from 2011 to 2020 and from 2021 to 2030. Our results indicate that there will be a sizable adverse economic impact where population aging is more advanced.

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=80955164680&partnerID=8YFLogxK

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=80955164680&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Article

VL - 281

SP - 1

EP - 30

JO - ERD Working Paper Series

JF - ERD Working Paper Series

SN - 1655-5252

ER -