Long-term changes in the heat-mortality relationship according to heterogeneous regional climate: A time-series study in South Korea

Seulkee Heo, Eun Il Lee, Bo Yeon Kwon, Suji Lee, Kyung Hee Jo, Jinsun Kim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

17 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: Several studies identified a heterogeneous impact of heat on mortality in hot and cool regions during a fixed period, whereas less evidence is available for changes in risk over time due to climate change in these regions. We compared changes in risk during periods without (1996-2000) and with (2008-2012) heatwave warning forecasts in regions of South Korea with different climates. Methods: Study areas were categorised into 3 clusters based on the spatial clustering of cooling degree days in the period 1993-2012: hottest cluster (cluster H), moderate cluster (cluster M) and cool cluster (cluster C). The risk was estimated according to increases in the daily all-cause, cardiovascular and respiratory mortality per 1°C change in daily temperature above the threshold, using a generalised additive model. Results: The risk of all types of mortality increased in cluster H in 2008-2012, compared with 1996-2000, whereas the risks in all-combined regions and cooler clusters decreased. Temporal increases in mortality risk were larger for some vulnerable subgroups, including younger adults (

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere011786
JournalBMJ Open
Volume6
Issue number8
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016 Aug 1

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Medicine(all)

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