Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall

Evaluation of Climate Change Impact

Chulsang Yoo, Jinwook Lee, Yonghun Ro

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

This study evaluates the effect of climate change on daily rainfall, especially on the mean number of wet days and the mean rainfall intensity. Assuming that the mechanism of daily rainfall occurrences follows the first-order Markov chain model, the possible changes in the transition probabilities are estimated by considering the climate change scenarios. Also, the change of the stationary probabilities of wet and dry day occurrences and finally the change in the number of wet days are derived for the comparison of current (1x CO2) and 2x CO2 conditions. As a result of this study, the increase or decrease in the mean number of wet days was found to be not enough to explain all of the change in monthly rainfall amounts, so rainfall intensity should also be modified. The application to the Seoul weather station in Korea shows that about 30% of the total change in monthly rainfall amount can be explained by the change in the number of wet days and the remaining 70% by the change in the rainfall intensity. That is, as an effect of climate change, the increase in the rainfall intensity could be more significant than the increase in the wet days and, thus, the risk of flood will be much highly increased.

Original languageEnglish
Article number7957490
JournalAdvances in Meteorology
Volume2016
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2016

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Markov chains
climate change
Markov chain
precipitation intensity
Climate change
Markov processes
Rain
decomposition
Decomposition
rainfall
evaluation
occurrences
weather stations
Korea
weather station
transition probabilities
effect

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science
  • Geophysics
  • Pollution

Cite this

Markov Chain Decomposition of Monthly Rainfall into Daily Rainfall : Evaluation of Climate Change Impact. / Yoo, Chulsang; Lee, Jinwook; Ro, Yonghun.

In: Advances in Meteorology, Vol. 2016, 7957490, 2016.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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