Abstract
Background and Purpose Identification of high risk population for atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients is a center of attention. The objective of the present study was to construct a model that can predict the presence of atrial fibrillation in ischemic stroke patients and to validate the model. Methods From a prospectively collected hospital-based stroke registry participated by two hospital, we selected data of patients who were admitted within 24 h after the onset of symptoms. Using a dataset of 1355 acute ischemic stroke patients, a model to predict the presence of atrial fibrillation was constructed and the probability of the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF-probability) was calculated. The patients were classified into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups according to AF-probability. The performance of the model to predict atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients was investigated and validated. Results Seven factors were selected as constituents of the model including age, left atrial size, free fatty acid level, triglyceride level, susceptibility vessel sign, hemorrhagic transformation, and cortical involvement. The performance of the model was excellent, with a C-statistic of 0.908 (95% confidence interval 0.887-0.930). According to risk group, true positivity for atrial fibrillation was 4.3%, 36.5%, 91.2% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The internal and external validation test showed stable consistency of the model. Conclusion The model constructed in this study could stratify stroke patients according to their risk of AF and may be helpful for selecting candidates who need extensive cardiac monitoring.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 184-189 |
| Number of pages | 6 |
| Journal | International Journal of Cardiology |
| Volume | 209 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | Published - 2016 Apr 15 |
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Keywords
- Atrial fibrillation
- Brain Infarction
- Intracranial Embolism
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Cardiology and Cardiovascular Medicine
Cite this
Novel composite score to predict atrial Fibrillation in acute stroke patients : AF predicting score in acute stroke. / Seo, Woo Keun; Kang, Sung Hoon; Jung, Jin-Man; Choi, Jeong Yoon; Oh, Kyungmi.
In: International Journal of Cardiology, Vol. 209, 15.04.2016, p. 184-189.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Novel composite score to predict atrial Fibrillation in acute stroke patients
T2 - AF predicting score in acute stroke
AU - Seo, Woo Keun
AU - Kang, Sung Hoon
AU - Jung, Jin-Man
AU - Choi, Jeong Yoon
AU - Oh, Kyungmi
PY - 2016/4/15
Y1 - 2016/4/15
N2 - Background and Purpose Identification of high risk population for atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients is a center of attention. The objective of the present study was to construct a model that can predict the presence of atrial fibrillation in ischemic stroke patients and to validate the model. Methods From a prospectively collected hospital-based stroke registry participated by two hospital, we selected data of patients who were admitted within 24 h after the onset of symptoms. Using a dataset of 1355 acute ischemic stroke patients, a model to predict the presence of atrial fibrillation was constructed and the probability of the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF-probability) was calculated. The patients were classified into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups according to AF-probability. The performance of the model to predict atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients was investigated and validated. Results Seven factors were selected as constituents of the model including age, left atrial size, free fatty acid level, triglyceride level, susceptibility vessel sign, hemorrhagic transformation, and cortical involvement. The performance of the model was excellent, with a C-statistic of 0.908 (95% confidence interval 0.887-0.930). According to risk group, true positivity for atrial fibrillation was 4.3%, 36.5%, 91.2% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The internal and external validation test showed stable consistency of the model. Conclusion The model constructed in this study could stratify stroke patients according to their risk of AF and may be helpful for selecting candidates who need extensive cardiac monitoring.
AB - Background and Purpose Identification of high risk population for atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients is a center of attention. The objective of the present study was to construct a model that can predict the presence of atrial fibrillation in ischemic stroke patients and to validate the model. Methods From a prospectively collected hospital-based stroke registry participated by two hospital, we selected data of patients who were admitted within 24 h after the onset of symptoms. Using a dataset of 1355 acute ischemic stroke patients, a model to predict the presence of atrial fibrillation was constructed and the probability of the presence of atrial fibrillation (AF-probability) was calculated. The patients were classified into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups according to AF-probability. The performance of the model to predict atrial fibrillation among acute stroke patients was investigated and validated. Results Seven factors were selected as constituents of the model including age, left atrial size, free fatty acid level, triglyceride level, susceptibility vessel sign, hemorrhagic transformation, and cortical involvement. The performance of the model was excellent, with a C-statistic of 0.908 (95% confidence interval 0.887-0.930). According to risk group, true positivity for atrial fibrillation was 4.3%, 36.5%, 91.2% in the low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups, respectively. The internal and external validation test showed stable consistency of the model. Conclusion The model constructed in this study could stratify stroke patients according to their risk of AF and may be helpful for selecting candidates who need extensive cardiac monitoring.
KW - Atrial fibrillation
KW - Brain Infarction
KW - Intracranial Embolism
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84961727024&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=84961727024&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.02.002
DO - 10.1016/j.ijcard.2016.02.002
M3 - Article
C2 - 26896619
AN - SCOPUS:84961727024
VL - 209
SP - 184
EP - 189
JO - International Journal of Cardiology
JF - International Journal of Cardiology
SN - 0167-5273
ER -