On the invalidity of the ordinary least squares estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity

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Abstract

The equilibrium climate sensitivity is often estimated by the ordinary least squares applied to annual data of observed/calculated temperature and forcing series. One of the conditions under which the ordinary least squares estimator is consistent is the uncorrelatedness of the regressor and regression error. However, this condition can fail in a regression using historical data of temperature and forcing. Alternative estimators established in econometrics are shown to mitigate the impact of the correlated regressor and regression error and deliver a more reliable estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)21-27
Number of pages7
JournalTheoretical and Applied Climatology
Volume146
Issue number1-2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2021 Oct

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Atmospheric Science

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