Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Thrips palmi in Korea, using the CLIMEX model

Jung Joon Park, Hyoung ho Mo, Gwan Seok Lee, Sung Eun Lee, Joon Ho Lee, Kijong Cho

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

13 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Thrips palmiKarny, melon thrips was introduced and first recorded in 1993 in Korea. This species has become a serious pest of vegetable and ornamental crops. The CLIMEX simulation was applied to T.palmi to predict its potential geographic distribution in Korea under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. In the CLIMEX simulation, the ecoclimatic index was calculated, and compared in each simulated year and each simulated location. The map comparisons show good agreements between simulated and present distributions of T.palmi, indicating that the CLIMEX model has promising potential for prediction of future distributions of this species in Korea. In the near future, until the year 2020, all the western and eastern parts of Korea show favorable to marginal suitability for T.palmi populations in the fields. After the year 2040, potential distributions shift from no persistence to favorable for establishment and persistence from coastal to interior regions of the Korean peninsula, except for a north-eastern interior region which is the northernmost part of a high mountainous (Baekdu-Daegan) area in Korea. Based on the simulation results, the geographical distribution of T.palmi will expand over its current weather restrictions in the near future under a severe climate change scenario. Thus, pest management measures and strategies should be re-evaluated in Korea, and should include further studies on interspecific competition and ecosystem changes due to climate changes.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)47-57
Number of pages11
JournalEntomological Research
Volume44
Issue number2
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014 Mar

Keywords

  • Melon thrips
  • RCP8.5 climate change scenario
  • Risk assessment

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Insect Science

Fingerprint Dive into the research topics of 'Predicting the potential geographic distribution of Thrips palmi in Korea, using the CLIMEX model'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

  • Cite this