TY - JOUR
T1 - Predictive mortality index for community-dwelling elderly koreans
AU - Kim, Nan Hee
AU - Cho, Hyun J.
AU - Kim, Soriul
AU - Seo, Ji H.
AU - Lee, Hyun J.
AU - Yu, Ji Hee
AU - Chung, Hye S.
AU - Yoo, Hye J.
AU - Seo, Ji A
AU - Kim, Sin Gon
AU - Baik, Sei-Hyun
AU - Choi, Dong Seop
AU - Shin, Chol
AU - Choi, Kyung Mook
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.
PY - 2016
Y1 - 2016
N2 - There are very few predictive indexes for long-term mortality among community-dwelling elderly Asian individuals, despite its importance, given the rapid and continuous increase in this population. We aimed to develop 10-year predictive mortality indexes for community-dwelling elderly Korean men and women based on routinely collected clinical data. We used data from 2244 elderly individuals (older than 60 years of age) from the southwest Seoul Study, a prospective cohort study, for the development of a prognostic index. An independent longitudinal cohort of 679 elderly participants was selected from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study in Ansan City for validation. During a 10-year follow-up, 393 participants (17.5%) from the development cohort died. Nine risk factors were identified and weighed in the Cox proportional regression model to create a point scoring system: age, male sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, and hemoglobin. In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 6.6%, 14.8%, 18.2%, and 38.4% among subjects with 1 to 4, 5 to 7, 8 to 9, and 10 points, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 5.2%, 12.0%, 16.0%, and 16.0% according to these categories. The C-statistic for the point system was 0.73 and 0.67 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The present study provides valuable information for prognosis among elderly Koreans and may guide individualized approaches for appropriate care in a rapidly aging society.
AB - There are very few predictive indexes for long-term mortality among community-dwelling elderly Asian individuals, despite its importance, given the rapid and continuous increase in this population. We aimed to develop 10-year predictive mortality indexes for community-dwelling elderly Korean men and women based on routinely collected clinical data. We used data from 2244 elderly individuals (older than 60 years of age) from the southwest Seoul Study, a prospective cohort study, for the development of a prognostic index. An independent longitudinal cohort of 679 elderly participants was selected from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study in Ansan City for validation. During a 10-year follow-up, 393 participants (17.5%) from the development cohort died. Nine risk factors were identified and weighed in the Cox proportional regression model to create a point scoring system: age, male sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, triglyceride, total cholesterol, white blood cell count, and hemoglobin. In the development cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 6.6%, 14.8%, 18.2%, and 38.4% among subjects with 1 to 4, 5 to 7, 8 to 9, and 10 points, respectively. In the validation cohort, the 10-year mortality risk was 5.2%, 12.0%, 16.0%, and 16.0% according to these categories. The C-statistic for the point system was 0.73 and 0.67 in the development and validation cohorts, respectively. The present study provides valuable information for prognosis among elderly Koreans and may guide individualized approaches for appropriate care in a rapidly aging society.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84958793927&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1097/MD.0000000000002696
DO - 10.1097/MD.0000000000002696
M3 - Article
C2 - 26844511
AN - SCOPUS:84958793927
VL - 95
JO - Medicine; analytical reviews of general medicine, neurology, psychiatry, dermatology, and pediatries
JF - Medicine; analytical reviews of general medicine, neurology, psychiatry, dermatology, and pediatries
SN - 0025-7974
IS - 5
M1 - e2696
ER -