Abstract
In the early stages of a construction project, the reliability and accuracy of conceptual cost estimates are major concerns for clients and cost engineers. Previous studies applied scoring methods and established common rules or mathematical methods to assess the quality of cost estimates. However, those approaches have some limitations in adapting to real-world projects or require understanding of sophisticated statistical techniques. We propose a Conceptual Cost Estimate Reliability Index (CCERI), a simple, easy-to-use, and easy-to-understand tool that incorporates weights for 20 factors influencing the quality of conceptual cost estimates. The weights were obtained by eliciting experts' experience and knowledge. Cost data from 71 building projects were used in the analysis and validation of the CCERI. The analysis reveals that a conceptual cost estimate with a CCERI score of less than 3000 has a high probability of exceeding 10% error, and such conceptual cost estimates are unlikely to be reliable. With the CCERI score, a decision maker or a client can recognize the reliability of the conceptual cost estimates and the score can thus support decision making using conceptual cost estimates. In addition, with the CCERI and the relative importance weights of factors affecting the conceptual cost estimates, the estimator can find ways to modify a conceptual cost estimate and reestimate it. These alternatives can decrease the risk in the conceptual estimated cost and assist in the successful management of a construction project.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages (from-to) | 9-16 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Journal | International Journal of Civil Engineering |
| Volume | 9 |
| Issue number | 1 |
| Publication status | Published - 2011 Mar 1 |
Fingerprint
Keywords
- Cost estimation
- Decision making
- Reliability assessment
- Reliability index
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Civil and Structural Engineering
Cite this
Reliabilty assessment of conceptual cost estimates for building construction projects. / An, Sung Hoon; Cho, Hun Hee; Lee, Ung Kyun.
In: International Journal of Civil Engineering, Vol. 9, No. 1, 01.03.2011, p. 9-16.Research output: Contribution to journal › Article
}
TY - JOUR
T1 - Reliabilty assessment of conceptual cost estimates for building construction projects
AU - An, Sung Hoon
AU - Cho, Hun Hee
AU - Lee, Ung Kyun
PY - 2011/3/1
Y1 - 2011/3/1
N2 - In the early stages of a construction project, the reliability and accuracy of conceptual cost estimates are major concerns for clients and cost engineers. Previous studies applied scoring methods and established common rules or mathematical methods to assess the quality of cost estimates. However, those approaches have some limitations in adapting to real-world projects or require understanding of sophisticated statistical techniques. We propose a Conceptual Cost Estimate Reliability Index (CCERI), a simple, easy-to-use, and easy-to-understand tool that incorporates weights for 20 factors influencing the quality of conceptual cost estimates. The weights were obtained by eliciting experts' experience and knowledge. Cost data from 71 building projects were used in the analysis and validation of the CCERI. The analysis reveals that a conceptual cost estimate with a CCERI score of less than 3000 has a high probability of exceeding 10% error, and such conceptual cost estimates are unlikely to be reliable. With the CCERI score, a decision maker or a client can recognize the reliability of the conceptual cost estimates and the score can thus support decision making using conceptual cost estimates. In addition, with the CCERI and the relative importance weights of factors affecting the conceptual cost estimates, the estimator can find ways to modify a conceptual cost estimate and reestimate it. These alternatives can decrease the risk in the conceptual estimated cost and assist in the successful management of a construction project.
AB - In the early stages of a construction project, the reliability and accuracy of conceptual cost estimates are major concerns for clients and cost engineers. Previous studies applied scoring methods and established common rules or mathematical methods to assess the quality of cost estimates. However, those approaches have some limitations in adapting to real-world projects or require understanding of sophisticated statistical techniques. We propose a Conceptual Cost Estimate Reliability Index (CCERI), a simple, easy-to-use, and easy-to-understand tool that incorporates weights for 20 factors influencing the quality of conceptual cost estimates. The weights were obtained by eliciting experts' experience and knowledge. Cost data from 71 building projects were used in the analysis and validation of the CCERI. The analysis reveals that a conceptual cost estimate with a CCERI score of less than 3000 has a high probability of exceeding 10% error, and such conceptual cost estimates are unlikely to be reliable. With the CCERI score, a decision maker or a client can recognize the reliability of the conceptual cost estimates and the score can thus support decision making using conceptual cost estimates. In addition, with the CCERI and the relative importance weights of factors affecting the conceptual cost estimates, the estimator can find ways to modify a conceptual cost estimate and reestimate it. These alternatives can decrease the risk in the conceptual estimated cost and assist in the successful management of a construction project.
KW - Cost estimation
KW - Decision making
KW - Reliability assessment
KW - Reliability index
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=79952809545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/citedby.url?scp=79952809545&partnerID=8YFLogxK
M3 - Article
AN - SCOPUS:79952809545
VL - 9
SP - 9
EP - 16
JO - International Journal of Civil Engineering
JF - International Journal of Civil Engineering
SN - 1735-0522
IS - 1
ER -