Abstract
This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Pages | 2579-2586 |
| Number of pages | 8 |
| Publication status | Published - 2011 Dec 1 |
| Externally published | Yes |
| Event | 12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011 - Sydney, NSW, Australia Duration: 2011 Nov 14 → 2011 Nov 16 |
Conference
| Conference | 12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011 |
|---|---|
| Country | Australia |
| City | Sydney, NSW |
| Period | 11/11/14 → 11/11/16 |
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ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Computer Science Applications
- Building and Construction
- Architecture
- Modelling and Simulation
Cite this
Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models. / Heo, Yeonsook; Augenbroe, Godfried; Choudhary, Ruchi.
2011. 2579-2586 Paper presented at 12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011, Sydney, NSW, Australia.Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper
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T1 - Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models
AU - Heo, Yeonsook
AU - Augenbroe, Godfried
AU - Choudhary, Ruchi
PY - 2011/12/1
Y1 - 2011/12/1
N2 - This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
AB - This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.
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