Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models

Yeonsook Heo; Godfried Augenbroe; Ruchi Choudhary

Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models

Yeonsook Heo, Godfried Augenbroe, Ruchi Choudhary

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

Abstract

This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.

Original language	English
Pages	2579-2586
Number of pages	8
Publication status	Published - 2011
Externally published	Yes
Event	12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011 - Sydney, NSW, Australia Duration: 2011 Nov 14 → 2011 Nov 16

Conference

Conference	12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Sydney, NSW
Period	11/11/14 → 11/11/16

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Computer Science Applications
Building and Construction
Architecture
Modelling and Simulation

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

Cite this

Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models. / Heo, Yeonsook; Augenbroe, Godfried; Choudhary, Ruchi.

2011. 2579-2586 Paper presented at 12th Conference of International Building Performance Simulation Association Building Simulation 2011, BS 2011, Sydney, NSW, Australia.

Research output: Contribution to conference › Paper › peer-review

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abstract = "This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.",

author = "Yeonsook Heo and Godfried Augenbroe and Ruchi Choudhary",

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AB - This paper presents a risk analysis method based on Bayesian calibration of building energy models. The Bayesian approach enables probabilistic outputs from the energy model, which are used to quantify risks associated with investing in energy conservation measures in existing buildings. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the proposed methodology to support energy saving contracts in the context of the ESCO industry. A case study illustrates the importance of quantifying relative risks by comparing the probabilistic outputs derived from the Bayesian approach to standard practices endorsed by International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol and ASHRAE guideline 14.

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ER -

Risk analysis of energy-efficiency projects based on bayesian calibration of building energy models

Abstract

Conference

ASJC Scopus subject areas

UN SDGs

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