Scenario-based CO₂ emissions reduction potential and energy use in Republic of Korea's passenger vehicle fleet

This study explores the carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions reduction potential of passenger vehicles in Republic of Korea, by assuming a number of CO₂ reduction routes. Historical data pertaining to important factors affecting the CO₂ emissions of passenger vehicles, such as the number of registered vehicles, annual mileage, and average CO₂ emissions per vehicle, were analyzed to predict the extent by which these factors would change in 2020. The results show that the total CO₂ emissions from passenger vehicles in 2015 would be approximately 37.1Mton, assuming automobile manufacturers will meet the regulations for CO₂ emissions reductions for 2015. The CO₂ emissions reduction route is determined in accordance with a hypothetical regulation for CO₂ emissions reductions in 2020. If the CO₂ emissions rates of new passenger vehicles are reduced by 3-7% per year after complying with the 2015 regulation, then total CO₂ emissions and required energy would be approximately 36.5-38.6Mton and 12.9-13.6Mtoe, respectively. Also, if the current fuel economy competition persists until 2020, the CO₂ emissions reductions will follow the plausible reduction route and consequently reach 35.1Mton CO₂ and 12.4Mtoe energy in 2020. As a result, in order to reduce the total CO₂ emissions of passenger vehicles in 2020 (compared with 2015), the value of regulated CO₂ emissions in 2020 should be set to less than 103g/km per passenger vehicle.