The epidemiological influence of climatic factors on shigellosis incidence rates in Korea

Yeong Jun Song, Hae Kwan Cheong, Myung Ki, Ji Yeon Shin, Seung Sik Hwang, Mira Park, Moran Ki, Jiseun Lim

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Research has shown the effects of climatic factors on shigellosis; however, no previous study has evaluated climatic effects in regions with a winter seasonality of shigellosis incidence. We examined the effects of temperature and precipitation on shigellosis incidence in Korea from 2002–2010. The incidence of shigellosis was calculated based on data from the Korean Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC, Cheongju, Korea), and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to analyze the associations between the incidence and climatic factors. The annual incidence rate of shigellosis was 7.9 cases/million persons from 2002–2010. During 2007–2010, high incidence rates and winter seasonality were observed among those aged ≥65 years, but not among lower age groups. Based on the GAM model, the incidence of shigellosis is expected to increase by 13.6% and 2.9% with a temperature increase of 1 C and a lag of two weeks and with a mean precipitation increase of 1 mm and a lag of five weeks after adjustment for seasonality, respectively. This study suggests that the incidence of shigellosis will increase with global climate change despite the winter seasonality of shigellosis in Korea. Public health action is needed to prevent the increase of shigellosis incidence associated with climate variations.

Original languageEnglish
Article number2209
JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume15
Issue number10
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2018 Oct 10

Keywords

  • Infectious diarrheal disease
  • Meteorological factors
  • Seasonal variation
  • Shigellosis

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

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