The Role of Credit Spreads and Structural Breaks in Forecasting the Term Structure of Korean Government Bond Yields

Chang Hoon Lee, Kyu Ho Kang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

1 Citation (Scopus)

Abstract

We examine whether Korean credit spreads are informative enough to help improve the predictive accuracy of Korean government bond yields. To do this, we analyze a joint dynamic Nelson-Siegel (DNS) model of Korean government bond yields and credit spreads. In the model multiple change-points at unknown time points in the factor process are allowed in order to capture the possibility of structural breaks in the yield and credit spread curve dynamics. We find that the joint DNS model of the yield and credit spread curves outperforms the standard DNS model of the yield curve in terms of out-of-sample yield curve prediction. Further, the predictive gains are maximized at the two change-points. The two change-points seem to be closely associated with the beginning of the recent financial crisis and the subsequent stabilization of Korean bond markets.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)353-386
Number of pages34
JournalAsia-Pacific Journal of Financial Studies
Volume44
Issue number3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2015 Jun 1

Keywords

  • Bayesian MCMC simulation
  • Dynamic Nelson-Siegel model
  • Out-of-sample forecasting
  • Posterior predictive criterion

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance

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