Validation of a web-based tool to predict the ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR! 2.0) after breast-conserving therapy for Korean patients

Seung Pil Jung, Sung Mo Hur, Se Kyung Lee, Sangmin Kim, Min Young Choi, Soo Youn Bae, Jiyoung Kim, Min Kuk Kim, Won Ho Kil, Jun Ho Choe, Jung Han Kim, Jee Soo Kim, Seok Jin Nam, Jeoung Won Bae, Jeong Eon Lee

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

4 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Purpose: IBTR! 2.0 is a web-based nomogram that predicts the 10-year ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR) rate after breast-conserving therapy. We validated this nomogram in Korean patients. Methods: The nomogram was tested for 520 Korean patients, who underwent breast-conserving surgery followed by radiation therapy. Predicted and observed 10-year outcomes were compared for the entire cohort and for each group, predefined by nomogram-predicted risks: group 1, <3%; group 2, 3% to 5%; group 3, 5% to 10%; group 4, >10%. Results: In overall patients, the overall 10 year predicted and observed estimates of IBTR were 5.22% and 5.70% (p=0.68). In group 1, (n=124), the predicted and observed estimates were 2.25% and 1.80% (p=0.73), in group 2 (n=177), 3.95% and 3.90% (p=0.97), in group 3 (n=181), 7.14% and 8.80% (p=0.42), and in group 4 (n=38), 11.66% and 14.90% (p=0.73), respectively. Conclusion: In a previous validation of this nomogram based on American patients, nomogram-predicted IBTR rates were overestimated in the high-risk subgroup. However, our results based on Korean patients showed that the observed IBTR was higher than the predicted estimates in groups 3 and 4. This difference may arise from ethnic differences, as well as from the methods used to detect IBTR and the healthcare environment. IBTR! 2.0 may be considered as an acceptable nomogram in Korean patients with low- to moderate-risk of in-breast recurrence. Before widespread use of this nomogram, the IBTR! 2.0 needs a larger validation study and continuous modification.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)97-103
Number of pages7
JournalJournal of Breast Cancer
Volume16
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2013 Mar

Keywords

  • Breast neoplasms
  • Nomograms
  • Radiotherapy
  • Recurrence
  • Validation studies

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology
  • Cancer Research

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    Jung, S. P., Hur, S. M., Lee, S. K., Kim, S., Choi, M. Y., Bae, S. Y., Kim, J., Kim, M. K., Kil, W. H., Choe, J. H., Kim, J. H., Kim, J. S., Nam, S. J., Bae, J. W., & Lee, J. E. (2013). Validation of a web-based tool to predict the ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR! 2.0) after breast-conserving therapy for Korean patients. Journal of Breast Cancer, 16(1), 97-103. https://doi.org/10.4048/jbc.2013.16.1.97