Validation of risk prediction models for the development of HBV-related HCC: A retrospective multi-center 10-year followup cohort study

Yeon Seok Seo, Byoung Kuk Jang, Soon Ho Um, Jae Seok Hwang, Kwang Hyub Han, Sang Gyune Kim, Kwan Sik Lee, Seung Up Kim, Young Seok Kim, Jung Il Lee

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22 Citations (Scopus)


Recently, modified REACH-B (mREACH-B) risk prediction model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development was proposed. We validated the accuracy of the mREACH-B model and compared its accuracy with those of other prediction models. Between 2006 and 2012, 1,241 patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) were recruited. All patients underwent transient elastography at enrollment. The median age of the study population (840 males, 401 females) was 49 years. The median PAGE-B, LSMHCC, and mREACH-B values were 10, 10, and 8, respectively. Among patients without cirrhosis (n = 940, 75.7%), the median REACH-B value was 9. During the follow-up period (median 77.4 months), 66 (5.3%) and 83 (6.7%) patients developed HCC and liver-related events (LRE), respectively. Higher liver stiffness (LS) independently predicted HCC (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.047) and LRE development (HR = 1.047) (all P < 0.05). The mREACH-B significantly predicted HCC (AUC = 0.824 at 3-year and 0.750 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.782 at 3-year and 0.739 at 5-year) (all P < 0.001) and it performed similarly or significantly better than the PAGE-B and LSM-HCC (AUC = 0.715-0.809 at 3-year and 0.719-0.742 at 5-year for HCC; AUC = 0.704-0.777 at 3-year and 0.721-0.735 at 5-year for LRE). Among patients without cirrhosis, mREACH-B predicted HCC (AUC = 0.803 vs. 0.654-0.816 at 3-year and 0.684 vs. 0.639-0.738 at 5-year) and LRE development (AUC = 0.734 vs. 0.619-0.789 at 3-year and 0.674 vs. 0.626-0.729 at 5-year) similarly to PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC. mREACH-B appropriately predicted HCC and LRE development in patients with CHB and showed similar or superior accuracy to those of PAGE-B, REACH-B, and LSM-HCC.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)113213-113224
Number of pages12
Issue number68
Publication statusPublished - 2017
Externally publishedYes


  • Hepatitis B
  • Hepatocellular carcinoma
  • Liver stiffness
  • Risk prediction
  • Transient elastography

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology


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