Background Although it has been demonstrated that visceral adipose tissue content and serum levels of adiponectin are associated with metabolic syndrome, their predictive potential for the development of metabolic syndrome remains to be elucidated. Methods We studied 1,130 participants of the Seoul Metabolic Syndrome cohort. A total of 337 subjects without metabolic syndrome underwent the follow-up evaluation and finally analyzed. Visceral fat area (VFA) was measured using dual bioelectrical impedance analysis. We compared the 1-year incidence rate of metabolic syndrome among four different groups: Group 1 (high adiponectin level and low VFA), Group 2 (low adiponectin level and low VFA), Group 3 (high adiponectin level and high VFA) and Group 4 (low adiponectin level and high VFA). Results Median follow-up duration was 17 months. Cut-off points of adiponectin level and VFA for metabolic syndrome were 7.34 ng/ml and 84 cm2 for men, and 12.55 and 58 cm2 ng/ml for women, respectively. The incidence of metabolic syndrome was the highest in Group 4 (Group 1; 16.47%, Group 2; 22.08%, Group 3; 25%, and Group 4; 46.15%, p<0.001). Adjusted logistic regression analyses for metabolic syndrome prediction demonstrated that Group 4 exhibited the highest odds ratio compared with Group 1 (4.918 [2.05-11.795]), which was predominantly affected by waist circumference and serum triglyceride levels. Notably, triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (TG/HDL) ratio was significantly higher in Group 4 (p = 0.017).
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