When fast-growing economies slow down: International evidence and implications for China

Barry Eichengreen, Donghyun Park, Kwanho Shin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

130 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Using international data starting in 1957, we construct a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points, when their per capita incomes reach around US$ 17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among our more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)42-87
Number of pages46
JournalAsian Economic Papers
Volume11
Issue number1
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2012 Jan

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Finance
  • Economics and Econometrics
  • Political Science and International Relations

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